The United States has made a pivotal decision to withdraw over 2,000 of its troops from Syria following its declaration of victory over the Islamic State. Alongside this, the US has also opted to roll back its forces in Afghanistan by half. These decisions signal the conclusion of a prolonged era of American military involvement in the Middle East and South Asia.
The Probable Consequence of US Troops Withdrawal
Allies of the US, including the UK, Germany, and France, have expressed their concerns over these decisions as they too have their own troops stationed in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) communicated apprehensions of a military vacuum that could leave the alliance stuck between ‘hostile parties’. Specialists in the field argue that the withdrawal of troops will provide regional actors like Iran the opportunity to expand their influence in Syria. This could potentially trigger calls for US troops withdrawal from Iraq as well. A swift US withdrawal may pave the way for an overt clash between Turkish and Kurdish forces. Ultimately, the withdrawal of US could spark the revival of forces like the Islamic State in Syria and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Impact on India
India is naturally concerned about the shift in US stance in the Middle East and Afghanistan, given its potential impact on regional interests and security. India was significantly affected by the rise of the Islamic State following the political unrest in Syria. The reach of the extremist group IS (Islamic State) into South Asia, which houses the world’s largest Muslim population, presents a significant concern for India, whose interests lie in the peace and stability of South Asia. This threat has been heightened by evidence of IS influencing Indian youth. The resurgence of the Taliban could dramatically affect India’s position in Afghanistan, strengthen Pakistan, and destabilize the region overall.
| Statistics | Data |
|---|---|
| US troops in Syria | 2000 |
| US troop reduction in Afghanistan | By half |
| Risk of Islamic State resurgence | High |
| Risk of Taliban resurgence | High |
Syrian Crisis
Syria has been gripped by a civil war ever since the 2011 uprising famously referred to as the “Arab Spring.” The Syrian government, under the leadership of President Bashar al-Assad, suppressed the protests by killing hundreds of demonstrators and imprisoning many others. In July 2011, military defectors announced the formation of the Free Syrian Army, an opposition group with the goal of overthrowing the government, seeding the onset of a full-blown civil war.
International Involvement
The implications of the civil war have transcended the borders of Syria. The conflict has sparked sectarian tensions (between Shia-Kurds-Sunni), geopolitical rivalries (such as US-Russia; Iran-Saudi Arabia-Israel), and escalated the global threat of Islamic extremism led by the Islamic State.
India’s Stand on the Syrian Crisis
India’s stance on the situation in Syria and the Middle East at large is primarily shaped by its vested interests in the region, namely energy security and diaspora. India’s support for the President Bashar-al-Assad-led regime in Syria is grounded in two key factors. The first is its anxiety over instability and the ascendance of Islamic fundamentalism. The second is its commitment to non-interventionism, a perspective echoed by fellow BRICS countries. These factors are complemented by Assad’s Baath Party’s unwavering backing of India’s stance on the Kashmir issue. Aligned with this, India advocates an all-encompassing Syrian-led process to determine the future of Syria, its political structures, and leadership.
