The recent departure of US troops from Afghanistan’s largest airbase concludes their military operations in the country, spanning two decades. This development followed a protracted war ignited by the 9/11 terrorist attacks that claimed around 3,000 lives. Osama Bin Laden, leader of al-Qaeda, was designated as the main culprit. When the Taliban, Afghanistan’s ruling radical Islamists, sheltered Bin Laden and denied his extradition, the US retaliated with airstrikes (Operation Enduring Freedom) commencing a month after the 9/11 events. The NATO coalition subsequently declared war on Afghanistan, leading to the dethroning of the Taliban regime and the instatement of a transitional Afghan government.
The Rationale Behind US Withdrawal
The decision to pull back was premised on the belief that the war was not winnable. This realization led the US to participate in the inaugural meeting between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Pakistan’s Murree in 2015. However, the talks were unproductive.
Doha Talk: A Turning Point
Subsequently, a special envoy for Afghanistan was appointed by the US, tasked with negotiating directly with the Taliban. These negotiations held in Doha culminated in an agreement in February 2020 between the US and Taliban insurgents. Prior to this, the Taliban had reiterated its willingness to engage only with the US, discrediting the Kabul government. The US conceded to this demand, sidelining the Afghan government and initiating direct dialogues with the insurgents.
Terms of the US-Taliban Agreement
The agreement covered four critical areas: the level of violence, foreign troop presence, intra-Afghan peace talks, and the use of Afghan soil by terror groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The US committed to withdrawing all its troops by May 1, 2021, a deadline later postponed to September 11, 2021. In return, the Taliban agreed to lessen violence, participate in intra-Afghan peace talks, and sever ties with international terror groups.
India’s Engagement with the Taliban
Acknowledging the significant role the Taliban will play in Afghanistan’s future, India initiated contact in Doha. India’s strategies concerning the Taliban include safeguarding its extensive investments in Afghanistan, preventing the Taliban from becoming a Pakistan pawn, and ensuring that Pakistan-supported anti-India terrorist groups do not receive assistance from the Taliban. Historically, India’s decision to not engage with the Taliban had severe repercussions when the Taliban was in power.
The Northern Alliance and the Control of Kabul
In November 2001, the Northern Alliance gained control of the Afghanistan capital, Kabul. This coalition fought defensively against the Taliban government, backed by the US and other supportive countries such as the UK.
Forecasted Outcomes for Afghanistan
The American troops’ retreat has seemingly tipped the balance of power towards the Taliban, who have begun major offensives targeting city centres and provincial capitals. A political settlement, an all-out civil war, or a Taliban-controlled country are all possible scenarios. At present, the onset of a civil war seems likely, with the government retaining control of key cities and the Taliban extending its countryside influence. Conversely, other ethnic militias continue to fight for their territories.
Post-Agreement Developments
After the agreement signing, the US pressured the Afghan government into releasing thousands of Taliban prisoners, fulfilling a precondition for starting intra-Afghan talks. These discourses, which commenced in Doha in September 2020, have not yet yielded any significant results. Currently, the peace process is at a standstill. Despite the signed agreement, the Taliban continues to target Afghan forces. Kabul argues that Pakistan’s continued support enables the Taliban to resist military pressure and advance with their agenda.