The United States has recently declared its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty (OST), a decision that is chiefly attributed to Russia’s ongoing treaty violations and changes in the global security environment. This impending departure is expected to be completed within six months.
The United States’ Stance
The U.S. has accused Russia of limiting American flyovers in Georgia and in Russia’s military enclave of Kaliningrad. Further, it alleges that Russia has utilized their flights over America and Europe to single out crucial infrastructure for potential assault during wartime. In addition, the U.S. asserts that Russia plans to annex the Crimean peninsula and has already established an Open Skies refueling airfield in this region. Despite these concerns, the U.S. remains open to negotiating a new agreement.
Russia’s Perspective
Russia has rejected these accusations and warned that the U.S. departure will negatively impact the remaining 35 countries participating in the OST. However, Russia has expressed its commitment to comply fully with all treaty rights and obligations as long as it remains in force. Notably, between 2002 and 2016, the U.S. conducted 196 flights over Russia, significantly more than Russia’s 71 flights over the U.S. during the same period.
The U.S.’s decision to leave the OST has cast uncertainty on the future of the New START Treaty, scheduled for expiration in February 2021. The Trump administration has consistently demonstrated skepticism towards arms control agreements. In 2019, both the U.S. and Russia abandoned the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
About the Open Skies Treaty
The Open Skies Treaty was signed in 1992 and came into effect in 2002. This agreement enables its 34 signatory countries to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over each other’s territories in order to monitor arms development. The treaty effectively establishes an aerial surveillance system for participating countries. Both the U.S. and Russia are signatories, though India is not a member.
About the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
This nuclear arms-control agreement was reached by the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 1987. The two nations agreed to eliminate their stocks of intermediate-range and shorter-range land-based missiles, which could carry nuclear warheads. This agreement encompassed all land-based missiles, including those with nuclear warheads, but excluded sea-launched missiles. The U.S. withdrew from this Treaty on August 2nd, 2019.
The New START Treaty
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between America and Russia provides measures for the further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms. Effective since February 5th, 2011, it is a successor to the 1991 START framework that restricted both nations to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads. The U.S. has expressed concern that extending this treaty may adversely affect a potential arms deal with China and Russia, asserting that China’s nuclear stockpile might double if the treaty continues without including China. The U.S. also believes the New START Treaty suffers from verification inadequacies and aims to establish a new arms control regime that includes China.
