Punjab, India, has long been hailed as the country’s “breadbasket,” known for its abundant agricultural output. However, a recent study has raised alarming concerns about the future of Punjab’s agriculture. The study suggests that climate change could transform the state into a water-deficient desert, jeopardizing its position as an agricultural powerhouse.
Changing Monsoon Patterns
The study analyzed monsoon data spanning five decades and uncovered significant shifts in monsoon patterns. While the rainy season now lasts longer than usual, the total amount of rainfall has been steadily decreasing. Moreover, the distribution of rainfall remains erratic, with unpredictable patterns posing challenges for farmers who heavily rely on seasonal rains for their crops.
Water-Intensive Farming Practices
Punjab’s farmers cultivate some of the most water-guzzling crops in the country, and a prosperous monsoon season is crucial for ensuring a proper yield. Paddy, in particular, has expanded its presence in recent decades, but its cultivation demands copious amounts of water. To irrigate this thirsty crop, farmers depend on either monsoon rainfall or groundwater pumping.
Depleting Groundwater Resources
The indiscriminate pumping of groundwater has further compounded the water crisis. In the absence of sufficient rain, farmers have been excessively drawing from underground aquifers, leading to a dangerous depletion of Punjab’s groundwater resources. This unrestrained water extraction poses a serious threat to the state’s agricultural sustainability.
Worsening Monsoon Patterns
Over the last two decades, the study revealed a worsening trend in monsoon patterns, particularly since 2001. In 17 out of 20 years between 2001 and 2020, Punjab experienced deficient monsoon rainfall, despite the extended monsoon period. The rate of rainfall during the monsoon season has fallen below the average of 6 mm/day, further exacerbating the water scarcity issue.
Impact on Crop Productivity
The declining water productivity of crops due to erratic and heavy rainfall poses a direct threat to Punjab’s agriculture. The sudden, intense showers are unable to recharge underground aquifers adequately and also hinder the growth and harvesting of crops. This has led to reduced crop yields and a decrease in overall agricultural output.
Regional Disparities
The northeastern regions of Punjab, located in the foothills of the Shivalik range, have been witnessing a decline in rainfall over the years. This skewed average distribution of rainfall has significant implications for agriculture in these regions, affecting crop patterns and yields. The shift in climate is part of broader changes in the Indo-Gangetic plains and northeast India.
Groundwater Stress in June and July
The low to medium rainfall during June and July intensifies the stress on groundwater resources. As farmers pump more groundwater to compensate for the lack of rain, the depletion accelerates. Additionally, heavy rainfall in September disrupts the maturation and harvesting of paddy crops, leading to further losses for farmers.
