India is undergoing a significant demographic shift, as evidenced by the recently released ‘Youth in India 2022’ report by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This crucial transition sees a declining youth population and an increasing share of the elderly, which could have wide-ranging implications for India’s economic growth and social security structure. The comprehensive analysis documents the key findings, potential repercussions, and policy recommendations emerging from this transition.
Key Findings of the Youth in India 2022 Report
During the period of 2011-2036, the report anticipates an initial rise in the youth population, followed by a steady decline. From 222.7 million in 1991, India’s young populace swelled to 333.4 million in 2011 and is projected to peak at 371.4 million by 2021 before falling to 345.5 million by 2036.
Meanwhile, the elderly population is set to increase more significantly. The percentage of seniors compared to the total population expanded from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016, with projections placing it at 14.9% by 2036.
Differences are also anticipated between states. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, for instance, will witness a growing youth proportion until 2021, whereas Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Himachal Pradesh are expected to see a higher elderly population than youth by 2036.
Implications of the Demographic Shift
India’s current “youth bulge” or large young adult population provides a significant opportunity for accelerated economic growth. However, this shift towards an older population in the future will necessitate enhanced healthcare facilities and welfare schemes for the elderly.
With the rising elderly population putting more pressure on social security and public welfare systems, India will need to focus on creating productive jobs in the next four to five years. This transition will especially impact people in informal employment, who usually lack social security, thereby adding to their respective state’s burden.
Policy Recommendations
To counteract these imminent challenges, there are several potential solutions. India needs to increase the share of employment in manufacturing, as this sector could absorb many people currently in the labor force before they retire.
Over the next four to five years, active labor market policies should be adopted to boost productive job creation. As the proportion of older people grows, public programs must adapt to this transformation by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and establishing universal healthcare and long-term care systems.
Youth-Related Schemes in India
Several schemes tailored towards the youth have already been implemented in India. These include the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana YUVA, a scheme for mentoring young authors; the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) Scheme; the National Health Mission (NHM); and the National Youth Policy-2014.
Moreover, additional schemes like the National Skill Development Corporation, Rashtriya Yuva Sashaktikaran Karyakram Scheme, Weekly Iron Folic Acid Supplementation Programme (WIFSP), and Scheme for Promotion of Menstrual Hygiene among Adolescent Girls have also been launched.
This comprehensive demographic shift emphasized in the ‘Youth in India 2022’ report presents numerous challenges and opportunities for economic growth, social security, and public welfare. How well India manages this transition and capitalizes on the current demographic dividend will shape the nation’s future trajectory.