The global geopolitical landscape is experiencing significant shifts, with an array of intricate conflicts and opportunities marking the year 2023. Two of the most destructive conflicts of recent decades- Russia-Ukraine and the ongoing war in Gaza- have emerged alongside China’s assertive behavior, disrupting diplomatic efforts and causing concern not only in the West but also in India. This necessitates a thorough understanding of the 2023 Global Geopolitical trends and their implications for India.
Overview of 2023 Global Geopolitical Trends and Challenges for India
Middle East Crisis
Two years of efforts to normalize ties between Israel and the Arab world were disrupted following a Hamas attack that claimed over 1,200 lives and took more than 230 hostages. Israel’s response, though criticized by even the US, has killed over 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza. The Israeli-Arab reconciliation process has been derailed for now. In response to this, India advocates for a two-state solution to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict.
India-US Relations
Following successful visits by Indian officials and President Joe Biden, allegations of an Indian connection to an assassination plot against a Khalistani separatist in the US have caused strain. However, India maintains its commitment to the rule of law and promises to examine the alleged involvement of Indian citizens if provided with information.
Russia-Ukraine War
Despite financial constraints, Ukraine hopes to secure significant assistance from the EU and the US. With Putin’s re-election and the resilience of Russia’s economy, the proximity between Russia and China adds to the concern of western countries.
India’s Challenges in Maldives
President Mohamed Muizzu urges India to withdraw military personnel stationed in the Maldives and plans to terminate a water survey pact. The emerging closeness between the Muizzu establishment and China is a point of concern.
China’s Behaviour
The ongoing border standoff with China and its influence on Moscow and Maldives pose significant strategic challenges to India.
G-20 and Global South
India’s success in negotiating a joint declaration at the G20 summit was welcomed by many, underscoring its leadership role in the Global South.
Engagement with Taliban
India has shown signs of engagement with the new incumbents of Afghanistan embassy in New Delhi.
Upcoming Challenges for India in 2024
US & Canada Relations
Resolving issues concerning allegations of an ‘assassination plot’ is key to maintaining good relations with the US and Canada.
Pakistan Relations
With elections due in Pakistan in 2024 and constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir, India’s interaction with Pakistan is expected to evolve.
Bangladesh Elections
Continuity in positive bilateral ties with Sheikh Hasina’s government is crucial as India looks forward to elections in Bangladesh.
China Border Standoff
Management of the ongoing border standoff with China will be imperative to maintain both security and domestic political stability.
West Asia Dynamics
India’s nuanced diplomatic positioning in the Israel-Hamas conflict presents intricate challenges.
Balancing Interests between Russia and US
Navigating interests between Russia and the US amid ongoing conflicts will shape India’s foreign policy strategy going forward.
Way Forward
India will focus on enhancing connectivity with Bangladesh while nurturing positive bilateral ties. It will also continue evolving its stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Moreover, it will focus on contributing to peace-building efforts and advocating for humanitarian aid. The free trade pacts with the UK and European partners at a critical stage will also be in focus. Furthermore, dialogues with the US and EU on technology and trade will be an important policy space to watch.