Article:
India is now facing an increasing threat from extreme climate events according to a recent study. The “Preparing India for Extreme Climate Events” report, released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), highlights how over 75% of districts in India are major hotspots for such devastating environmental changes. The CEEW is renowned as one of Asia’s leading independent, non-partisan, not-for-profit organizations specializing in policy research related to resource management.
Key Findings of the Report
The study revealed a noticeable increase in frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of extreme weather events. From 1970-2005, India reported 250 instances of extreme climate events, but in the following 15 years, this figure jumped to 310. Since 2005, the adverse impacts of these events – such as loss of property, livelihoods, and lives – have been seen especially in the districts affected by the shift in microclimate.
Internationally, climate change-induced weather events led to approximately 495,000 human deaths between 1999-2018. An estimated total of over $3.54 trillion was lost to more than 12,000 extreme weather incidents during the same period.
Cyclones: A Rising Threat
The report found that yearly averages of districts affected by cyclones tripled after 2005, and the frequency of cyclones also doubled. In the past decade, 258 districts, primarily along the eastern coastline, experienced cyclones. Among various factors, the region’s warming microclimate, land-use changes, and forest degradation are exacerbating cyclonic activity.
Increase in Flood-Related Events
Between 2000-2009, there was a surge in extreme flood events, affecting nearly 473 districts. Associated crises like landslides, heavy rainfall, hailstorms, thunderstorms, and cloudbursts also saw a twentyfold increase. Factors contributing to this rise include land subsidence, the urban heat island phenomenon, and sea-level rise due to glacial melt, which are intensifying cyclonic disturbances and increasing flood events.
Surge in Droughts
The number of districts afflicted by droughts increased 13 times after 2005, with 79 districts affected compared to only six before that period. Though the loss of life due to drought has significantly reduced, the uncertainty it brings to agriculture and rural livelihoods is cause for concern.
Weakening Monsoon Patterns
The study correlated the weakening of monsoons with rising micro-temperatures. This aligns with the experiences of states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh, which faced severe water scarcity in 2015 due to record-breaking summer temperatures and weakening monsoons.
Shift in Extreme Climate Event Patterns
The research identified a shift in patterns of extreme weather events, with over 40% of Indian districts now exhibiting swapping between being flood-prone to drought-prone, and vice versa. More alarmingly, some areas wrestle with both floods and droughts concurrently.
Microclimatic Shifts: A Growing Concern
Microclimatic zones – areas where the climate differs from surrounding regions – are shifting across various districts in India. Such alterations could lead to serious disruptions, such as a 15-20% decrease in agricultural productivity for every 2 degrees Celsius rise in temperature. Factors like changing land-use patterns, deforestation, and urban heat islands seem to be driving these shifts.
Proposed Solutions
To address these multifaceted issues, the report suggests developing a Climate Risk Atlas, an Integrated Emergency Surveillance System, and integrating risk assessments at various levels. Enhancing the ability to adapt and developing resilience against these climate changes while involving all stakeholders in the decision-making process is also advocated.