Monsoon Forecasts and Climate Patterns

The anticipation for the summer monsoon in India is a yearly event. The forecast influences agriculture, economy, and overall public sentiment. The years 2025-2026 have raised questions about potential El Niño or La Niña conditions. These climatic phenomena have historically shaped monsoon outcomes, although they account for only 60% of deficit and surplus years. Recent reports have suggested a La Niña presence, but emerging data presents a complex scenario.

El Niño and La Niña Explained

El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. La Niña is the opposite, characterised by cooler sea surface temperatures in the same region. These phases influence global weather patterns, including monsoon behaviour in India.

Recent Climate Observations

In early 2024, forecasts predicted a strong La Niña due to cold sea surface temperature anomalies. However, an unexpected shift occurred. Cold anomalies began moving westward, while warm anomalies emerged in the eastern Pacific. This unusual pattern has persisted, indicating a potential new climate state.

About Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Sea surface temperature anomalies play important role in determining climatic conditions. The current situation shows cold anomalies in the central-western Pacific and warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific. This reversal is atypical compared to historical patterns, which usually show warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific.

Climate Variability and Its Effects

The Southern Hemisphere climate variability affects ENSO transitions. This variability influences wind patterns in the tropical Pacific, impacting the emergence of El Niño or La Niña. The ENSO transition mode (ETM) is particularly relevant, as it can inhibit the expected transition from El Niño to La Niña.

Predictions for the Upcoming Monsoon

Forecasts for 2025 remain uncertain. Some models suggest a potential La Niña, while others predict a normal year or even a strong El Niño. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may also play a role, adding complexity to monsoon predictions. The relationship between ENSO and the monsoon has evolved, complicating forecasting efforts.

Challenges in Forecasting

The climate community faces challenges in producing reliable forecasts due to unprecedented warming trends. Changes in mid-latitude temperature anomalies and jet stream behaviour are influencing monsoon patterns. These factors create a challenging environment for farmers and policymakers alike.

Government and Community Responses

State and Union governments are working to improve forecasting accuracy. The India Meteorological Department is striving to enhance its predictions. However, managing expectations remains challenge, especially with the early arrival of heat waves.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in global weather patterns.
2. Examine the factors that influence the Indian monsoon and their implications for agriculture.
3. Analyse the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on climate variability.
4. Estimate the relationship between mid-latitude changes and monsoon behaviour in recent decades.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in global weather patterns.

1. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the ENSO, influencing global weather.
2. El Niño leads to warmer sea surface temperatures, affecting rainfall patterns worldwide.
3. La Niña results in cooler temperatures, often causing droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.
4. ENSO affects atmospheric circulation, impacting storm tracks and weather extremes globally.
5. Historically, ENSO events have been linked to climate anomalies, influencing agriculture and economies.

2. Examine the factors that influence the Indian monsoon and their implications for agriculture.

1. The Indian monsoon is influenced by various factors, including ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and local topography.
2. ENSO events can lead to either excess rainfall or drought, directly impacting crop yields.
3. The IOD can modulate the effects of ENSO on the monsoon, complicating predictions.
4. Changes in temperature and wind patterns due to climate change also affect monsoon behavior.
5. Farmers rely on accurate forecasts for planting and harvesting decisions, making reliable predictions crucial for food security.

3. Analyse the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on climate variability.

1. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are critical in determining climatic conditions and patterns.
2. Warm SST anomalies can lead to increased evaporation and altered precipitation patterns.
3. Cold SST anomalies often correlate with drought conditions and reduced rainfall.
4. The current unusual SST patterns challenge traditional climate models and expectations.
5. About SST anomalies is essential for predicting weather events and climate trends.

4. Estimate the relationship between mid-latitude changes and monsoon behaviour in recent decades.

1. Mid-latitude temperature changes affect the jet stream, which influences monsoon patterns.
2. Altered jet stream behavior can lead to shifts in rainfall distribution during the monsoon.
3. Recent decades have seen a change in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon outcomes.
4. These changes complicate forecasting and can lead to increased agricultural risk.
5. About this relationship is crucial for effective climate adaptation strategies in agriculture.