The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently projected that artificial intelligence (AI) will boost global GDP by 0.5% annually from 2025 to 2030. This growth is expected to outweigh the environmental costs associated with increased carbon emissions from AI data centres. Despite these positive economic forecasts, the benefits of AI will not be distributed evenly across the globe. Policymakers and businesses are urged to implement sustainable practices to ensure equitable deployment of AI technologies.
Economic Growth Projections
The IMF anticipates a steady increase in global output due to AI advancements. It estimates that the annual GDP growth from AI will reach 0.5% from 2025 to 2030. This growth is considered substantial, especially in light of the challenges posed by rising electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions. The report suggests that the social costs associated with these emissions are minor compared to the expected economic benefits.
Increasing Energy Demands
AI’s rapid adoption is projected to drive surge in energy consumption. The IMF estimates that global electricity needs could more than triple by 2030, reaching approximately 1,500 terawatt-hours (TWh). This demand is comparable to India’s current electricity consumption and exceeds the anticipated energy needs of electric vehicles. The rise in energy demand marks the urgent need for sustainable energy policies.
Carbon Emissions and Environmental Impact
The anticipated increase in electricity consumption will also lead to a rise in carbon emissions. Under current energy policies, AI’s implementation could result in a cumulative greenhouse gas emission increase of 1.2% from 2025 to 2030. However, the report indicates that more environmentally friendly energy policies could mitigate this increase . The estimated social cost of these emissions ranges from $50.7 to $66.3 billion, which remains lower than the projected economic gains.
Role of Policy and Technology
Independent analysts stress that the economic and environmental outcomes of AI will largely depend on its application. There is potential for AI to enhance energy efficiency and promote sustainable consumption patterns. However, market forces alone may not suffice to direct AI towards climate-positive outcomes. Active involvement from governments, tech companies, and energy firms is essential to ensure that AI is used in an equitable and sustainable manner.
The Need for Sustainable Practices
To harness the full potential of AI while minimising environmental impact, it is crucial to adopt sustainable practices. This includes investing in research and development for low-carbon technologies. Policymakers must also address the inequalities that may arise from AI advancements. Ensuring that the benefits of AI are shared broadly will require intentional strategies and collaborative efforts across sectors.
Questions for UPSC:
- Examine the relationship between technological advancements and economic growth in developing countries.
- Discuss the role of renewable energy in mitigating the impacts of climate change. Provide examples.
- What are the implications of rising carbon emissions on global health? Critically discuss.
- With suitable examples, analyse the influence of government policies on the adoption of sustainable technologies.
Answer Hints:
1. Examine the relationship between technological advancements and economic growth in developing countries.
- Technological advancements can increase productivity and efficiency, leading to higher economic output.
- Access to technology can create new job opportunities and stimulate innovation in developing economies.
- Investment in technology infrastructure is crucial for enabling growth and competitiveness in global markets.
- Digital divide issues can exacerbate inequalities if certain regions lack access to new technologies.
- Government policies and international cooperation can enhance technology transfer and adoption in developing countries.
2. Discuss the role of renewable energy in mitigating the impacts of climate change. Provide examples.
- Renewable energy reduces reliance on fossil fuels, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.
- Technologies like solar and wind power provide sustainable energy solutions and create green jobs.
- Countries like Denmark and Germany have successfully integrated large shares of renewable energy into their grids.
- Investment in renewables can enhance energy security and reduce vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel markets.
- Policies promoting renewables, such as subsidies and tax incentives, can accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
3. What are the implications of rising carbon emissions on global health? Critically discuss.
- Increased carbon emissions contribute to climate change, leading to health issues like respiratory diseases and heat-related illnesses.
- Air pollution from carbon emissions is linked to millions of premature deaths annually worldwide.
- Climate change exacerbates food and water scarcity, impacting nutrition and health outcomes.
- Vulnerable populations, particularly in low-income countries, face heightened health risks from climate-related disasters.
- Mitigating carbon emissions through sustainable practices can improve public health and reduce healthcare costs.
4. With suitable examples, analyse the influence of government policies on the adoption of sustainable technologies.
- Government incentives, such as tax credits and grants, can encourage businesses to invest in sustainable technologies.
- Countries like Sweden have implemented carbon taxes that drive innovation in clean energy solutions.
- Regulatory frameworks can mandate emissions reductions, prompting industries to adopt cleaner technologies.
- Public-private partnerships can facilitate research and development in sustainable technologies, as seen in the U.S. and Europe.
- Education and awareness campaigns can promote the benefits of sustainable technologies among consumers and businesses.
