China recently conducted a meeting of trade ministers from the C+C5 — a grouping comprising China and the five Central Asian republics, namely Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This is the latest in a sequence of diplomatic engagements by China with this region, which has been occurring since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Understanding the China-Central Asia Engagement
The first C+C5 summit was held in January 2022 and marked the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the Central Asian nations. China’s historical trade and cultural links with the region can be traced back to the ancient Silk Route era. The region serves as a source of cheap export markets for China and provides overland access to Eastern European and Western Asian markets. Central Asia is rich in resources including gas, oil, and strategic minerals such as uranium, copper, and gold. It’s important for China to maintain good relationships with these countries to ensure peace in its adjoining Xinjiang Autonomous Region.
China’s Investments & Influence in Central Asia
China has been actively investing in Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative that covers projects in oil and gas, transport, digital technology, and green energy fields. While these investments have catalyzed economic growth in the region, they have also caused resentment due to China’s alleged ill-treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang and concerns about its increasing presence and land acquisitions. Yet, Central Asian governments haven’t joined international campaigns against China’s treatment of its Muslim minority.
The Balancing Act: Relations with Russia, China and West
Central Asia is heavily dependent on Russia, both economically and for security via the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). However, the unity within the CSTO has been weakening, with the conflict in Ukraine raising concerns about the implications of Russia’s security relationship with Central Asia. Despite these tensions, Russia has increased trade with the region to reduce its dependence on European imports. Meanwhile, Central Asian countries are also striving to develop trade relations with the Western countries – a goal hindered by geographical constraints and inadequate transport infrastructure.
India’s Stake in the Central Asian Landscape
India shares deep cultural ties with Central Asia, including through ancient Silk Route connections and the export of Buddhism. Military bases renovated by India in Tajikistan aim to boost its security presence in the region, giving it strategic advantage against adversaries like China and Pakistan. In 2022, India confirmed its commitment to its “Extended Neighborhood Policy (ENP)” that focuses on diversifying geopolitical partners and diplomatic objectives, engaging Central Asian partners on multiple fronts. As a part of this policy, India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), aiming to establish security relationships with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Challenges And Opportunities for India’s Engagement in Central Asia
While India maintains trade ties with the C5 nations, the absence of a direct land route to Central Asia poses challenges. Pakistan’s denial of passage and the uncertainties in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover compound the issue. There have been suggestions that India could offer connectivity in Central Asia via “air corridors”. Despite these challenges, India must prioritize building lasting partnerships with Central Asian states, especially considering the ongoing geopolitical challenges. Joint counter-terrorism efforts can help India establish itself as a consistent partner, but to safeguard these relationships from geopolitical, economic, or domestic pressures, India must also tackle other issues such as transit, trade, investment, and people-to-people connections.
