Recently, China has initiated a survey among 1.4 million citizens in order to understand the changes in its population. The decision is prompted by the struggling efforts of the authorities to incentivize the population to have more children due to a drop in birth rate and population. This decline, observed for the first time in over six decades, was at approximately 850,000 in 2022.
The Evolution of China’s Population Policy
In 1980, China implemented its one-child policy in response to a growing population nearing one billion, which was believed to hinder its economic progress. This policy, credited with preventing the birth of up to 400 million people, was however criticized for its violation of human rights and unfair disadvantage to the poor. In 2016, the government introduced a two-child policy, but this did little to improve the declining population growth.
Subsequently, a three-child policy was announced on the back of data from the 2020 census indicating that China’s population growth rate was rapidly falling despite liberalized reproduction policies.
Implications of China’s Declining Population
The fall in young population brings about labor shortages, creating detrimental effects on the economy. With an increase in the older population, demands for healthcare and pensions rise, putting additional pressure on the country’s social spending system. This decline poses a significant challenge for China, as unlike wealthier countries like Japan and Germany, it can’t invest heavily in capital and technology due to its middle-income status and dependence on labor-intensive sectors.
This population decrease could also create ripple effects such as a global slow-down in economic growth and disruption of supply chains reliant on Chinese manufacturing and exports.
World Population Trends
On a global scale, the world’s population reached 8 billion people in 2022, up from an estimated 2.5 billion in 1950. According to UN data, India surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation with a population of approximately 1.43 billion.
Areas such as Africa are expected to see high population growth rates, with the Sub-Saharan population projected to double by 2050. Meanwhile, several developed nations, including Japan and Ukraine are expected to see their populations decline more than 15% by 2050.
India: Learning from China’s Demographic Shift
Learning from China’s experience, it can be inferred that stringent population control measures can result in human crises, especially if they are coercive. Empowering women through education, job opportunities, and healthcare access can help lower the fertility rate, as seen in China. For India, it’s crucial to maintain its current replacement level fertility of 2.1 to avoid a similar demographic crisis being experienced by China now.
India’s Steps Towards Population Control
India has taken significant steps towards population control, starting a state-sponsored family planning program in the 1950s and establishing a population policy committee in 1952. In the 1980s, the Ministry of Education launched a Population Education Programme in conjunction with the United Nations Funds for Population Activities (UNFPA) and the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
The National Population Policy, 2000 aimed at achieving population stability and addressing the unmet needs for contraception, healthcare infrastructure, and personnel among others. The opportunity to benefit from India’s young population (demographic dividend) until the 2040s, however, depends on creating good job opportunities for the youth.
Past Questions on Population from Civil Services Examination
Understanding the implications of population trends and efforts for population control is important not only from a policy-making perspective but also for potential questions in the Civil Services Examination. Past questions have focused on topics ranging from the social capital of a country, India’s demographic dividend, the objectives of Population Education, and the relationship between population growth and poverty.