The recently released update of the Groundswell report by the World Bank has prompted discussions on the effects of climate change. According to the report, climate changes could force the movement of 216 million people within their own countries across six world regions by 2050. The hotspots of this internal climate migration may start appearing as early as 2030 and are expected to spread and intensify by 2050.
Origins and Evolution of the Groundswell Report
The first Groundswell report was published in 2018 and used a unique modeling approach to understand the future scale, trajectory, and spatial patterns of climate migration within countries. This report focused on three regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
The second Groundswell report builds on the first one’s foundation, expanding its scope to include three additional regions: the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It also includes qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in the eastern part of the Arab World (the Mashreq) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
Significance and Findings of the Groundswell Reports
Together, the two Groundswell reports provide an unprecedented global overview of potential internal climate migration across six World Bank regions. They indicate that as many as 216 million people could become internal climate migrants by 2050. This figure represents almost 3% of the total projected population in these regions.
From region-wise perspective; Sub-Saharan Africa may see 85.7 million climate migrants, East Asia and the Pacific 48.4 million, South Asia 40.5 million, North Africa 19.3 million, Latin America 17.1 million, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia 5.1 million. The extent of migration will be greatest in the poorest and most climate-vulnerable regions.
The Most Vulnerable Regions
Sub-Saharan Africa, being highly vulnerable due to desertification, fragile coastlines, and a population largely dependent on agriculture, would see the highest number of migrants. North Africa, facing severe water scarcity and the impacts of sea-level rise on densely populated coastal areas and the Nile Delta, is predicted to have the largest proportion of climate migrants (9%). South Asia, particularly Bangladesh, is also severely affected by flooding and crop failures, accounting for almost half of the predicted climate migrants in the region.
Policy Recommendations
To mitigate the impacts of climate change and subsequently reduce the potential scale of internal climate migration, certain policy recommendations have been proposed. These include reducing emissions, establishing inclusive and resilient development pathways, planning for each phase of migration, and increasing investments in research at a larger scale.
Global Efforts to Address Climate Change and Migration Challenges
Several global efforts have been made to address the issue of climate change-related migration, including but not limited to:
– The Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010) by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
– Creation of the UNFCCC Task Force on Displacement in 2013
– The Paris Agreement (2015)
– The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030)
– The UN Global Compact on Refugees (2016)
– The UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (2018)
– And the UNFCCC 24th Conference of Parties Decision (2018). All these initiatives aim to enhance understanding, coordination, cooperation, and response to climate-induced displacement, migration, and planned relocation.
