Delhi is experiencing an unusual November. The winter chill is yet to arrive. Average temperatures hover around 28 degrees Celsius. This trend follows a record-breaking October. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that typical winter temperatures may take longer to settle in.
Current Weather Context
The current weather in Delhi is influenced by several factors. October 2024 was the hottest October in 74 years. November temperatures are predicted to remain 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above average. Daytime highs may not drop below 30°C until late November. This unusual warmth is attributed to the absence of Western Disturbances.
Role of Western Disturbances
Western Disturbances are crucial weather systems originating from the Mediterranean. They typically bring cooler temperatures and rainfall to North India. Since the end of the monsoon in October, Delhi has not experienced these disturbances. Consequently, Northwest India has seen about 80% less rainfall than usual. This lack of precipitation contributes to the warmer and drier conditions.
Impact of Global Climate Phenomena
Global climate phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina are also affecting local weather patterns. El Nino is associated with warmer temperatures and was expected to diminish this winter. However, it remains in a neutral state, complicating predictions. La Nina, which could introduce cooler weather, might develop soon, but its timing and strength are uncertain.
IMD Forecast and Future Expectations
The IMD’s forecast provides little hope for immediate change. A weak Western Disturbance is anticipated between November 16 and 21, but it will likely have minimal impact on Delhi. The capital may continue to experience stagnant temperatures and a lack of important rainfall.
Long-term Climate Implications
The current weather patterns suggest a shift in seasonal rhythms. Traditional weather patterns are undergoing upheaval. As climate change progresses, Delhi may need to adapt to warmer Novembers. This prolonged autumn could become a new norm for the city.
Questions for UPSC:
- Discuss the impact of Western Disturbances on the winter climate of North India.
- Critically examine the role of El Nino and La Nina in influencing regional weather patterns.
- Explain the significance of the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecasts in weather prediction.
- With suitable examples, discuss how climate change is altering seasonal patterns in urban areas.
Answer Hints:
1. Discuss the impact of Western Disturbances on the winter climate of North India.
Western Disturbances are crucial for bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to North India during winter. Originating from the Mediterranean, these weather systems typically lead to a drop in temperatures and increased rainfall, which are vital for replenishing water sources. In their absence, as seen in Delhi this November, temperatures can remain above average, leading to prolonged warm conditions. The current lack of Western Disturbances has resulted in approximately 80% less rainfall, contributing to a warmer and drier climate, which disrupts the expected seasonal transition from autumn to winter.
2. Critically examine the role of El Nino and La Nina in influencing regional weather patterns.
El Nino and La Nina are important climate phenomena that affect global weather patterns, including those in India. El Nino, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures, typically leads to increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Conversely, La Nina can introduce cooler conditions and enhanced rainfall. Currently, El Nino is in a neutral state, complicating predictions for winter weather. The potential development of La Nina may bring cooler temperatures, but its uncertain timing and strength highlight the complexity of forecasting. These phenomena tell the interconnectedness of global climate systems and their localized impacts.
3. Explain the significance of the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecasts in weather prediction.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) plays important role in weather prediction and climate monitoring in India. Its forecasts provide vital information for agriculture, disaster management, and public safety. By analyzing various meteorological data, the IMD can predict weather patterns, including the onset of winter and potential rainfall. In the current context, the IMD’s forecasts indicate a delayed winter in Delhi, which is essential for residents and policymakers to prepare for prolonged warm conditions. Accurate weather predictions help mitigate risks associated with climate variability and inform strategic planning across sectors.
4. With suitable examples, discuss how climate change is altering seasonal patterns in urban areas.
Climate change is altering seasonal patterns in urban areas, leading to warmer temperatures and unpredictable weather. For example, cities like Delhi are experiencing delayed winters, with November temperatures remaining unusually high. This shift can increase energy demands for cooling and affect public health. Additionally, cities like New York have seen warmer winters, impacting snowfall and winter tourism. These changes disrupt natural ecosystems and challenge urban infrastructure. As climate change progresses, urban areas may need to adapt to new seasonal rhythms, affecting agriculture, water supply, and overall urban planning.
