The impending inauguration of Donald Trump for a second term as President of the United States raises questions about his foreign policy, particularly regarding the Middle East. Trump’s recent statements about the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas highlight the urgency of the situation. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, claims they are close to a deal. However, Trump’s warning about potential chaos if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages puts stress on the tensions in the region.
Historical Context of Trump’s First Term
Trump inherited a Middle East fraught with conflict. The region was grappling with the aftermath of the Islamic State’s rise and the ongoing Syrian civil war. The Gulf states were on edge due to Iran’s influence. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) was asserting his power, promoting an anti-Iran narrative. This set the stage for a cooperative relationship with Trump, who shared similar views on Iran.
Key Policies and Actions
During his first term, Trump focused heavily on Iran. He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and labelled the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation. His administration implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy, increasing sanctions on Iran. This approach aligned with the interests of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, leading to the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states.
Current Dynamics in the Middle East
As Trump approaches his second term, the Middle East landscape has shifted. The recent Gaza conflict has strained relations between Israel and Arab states. The UAE is now the only Arab country to maintain an ambassador in Israel. MBS has indicated a historic turning point in Saudi-Iran relations, reflecting a change in the Arab stance towards Israel’s military actions.
Challenges Ahead for Trump
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy may face challenges in this new context. The Arab leadership’s unease over Israel’s actions complicates negotiations. The recent Arab League resolution condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza indicates a shift in regional dynamics. Trump’s warning about “hell breaking loose” raises questions about his commitment to military engagement and support for Israel.
Potential Implications for US Policy
The evolving situation could impact US-Saudi relations. If Saudi Arabia normalises ties with Israel, it may alter the security guarantees the US provides. Trump’s historical aversion to military involvement abroad adds another layer of complexity. The expectations of Israeli leaders for unwavering US support may not align with Trump’s evolving strategy.
Conclusion
Trump’s second term presents a complex and shifting Middle East landscape. His past policies and the region’s current dynamics will shape his approach as he navigates these challenges.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the impact of the Abraham Accords on Arab-Israeli relations.
- Examine the implications of Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East on regional security.
- Estimate the role of US foreign policy in shaping Middle Eastern alliances post-2016.
- Point out the factors contributing to the shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance towards Iran and Israel.
Answer Hints:
1. Critically discuss the impact of the Abraham Accords on Arab-Israeli relations.
- Established formal diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states, including UAE and Bahrain.
- Shifted the focus from the Palestinian issue to broader regional security and economic cooperation.
- Encouraged other Arab nations to consider normalization, altering long-standing positions against Israel.
- Facilitated increased trade and investment between Israel and signatory states.
- Led to increased tensions with Iran and its allies, as the accords were perceived as a coalition against Tehran.
2. Examine the implications of Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East on regional security.
- Iran’s support for proxy groups like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq escalates sectarian tensions.
- Increased Iranian influence challenges traditional Arab powers, prompting a reevaluation of security strategies.
- Heightened military confrontations between Iran and Israel, raising the risk of direct conflict.
- Regional alliances are shifting, with some Arab states seeking closer ties with Tehran to counterbalance Israel.
- Potential for nuclear escalation as Iran advances its nuclear program amidst declining diplomatic relations.
3. Estimate the role of US foreign policy in shaping Middle Eastern alliances post-2016.
- US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal emboldened Arab states to align against Tehran.
- Trump’s support for Israel facilitated normalization deals, reshaping regional alliances.
- US military presence and arms sales to allies reinforced security partnerships, particularly with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
- Shift from a traditional peace process focus to a transactional approach altered diplomatic engagements.
- US policy inconsistencies may lead to uncertainty in alliances, affecting long-term regional stability.
4. Point out the factors contributing to the shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance towards Iran and Israel.
- Rising regional tensions and conflicts, particularly involving Iran’s influence in Iraq and Syria.
- Desire for economic diversification and stability, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek partnerships with Israel.
- Pressure from the US to confront Iran and normalize relations with Israel for strategic alignment.
- Public sentiment and domestic considerations influencing MBS’s foreign policy decisions.
- Recognition of the changing geopolitical landscape, necessitating a pragmatic approach to regional relations.
