Article:
Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has pledged to continue a military operation in the Tigray region despite growing apprehensions of escalating unrest. This decision follows recent attacks on a federal military base in Tigray by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), prompting concerns over potential civil strife.
The Background
Abiy assumed office in April 2018 and initiated democratic reforms. He made peace with Eritrea, quelled opposition and controlled media restrictions, all contributing to his Nobel Peace Prize win in 2019. Eritrea being an adversary of the TPLF implicates a geopolitical dimension into the conflict. Abiy also removed the TPLF’s influence from senior government roles, further souring relations.
A new political coalition, the Prosperity Party, was formed excluding the TPLF, raising tensions. When general elections were delayed until 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic, Tigray politicians called foul and held regional elections against the federal government’s wishes. The tension culminated in an attack on a military base in Tigray.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
The TPLF is a party that originated as a militia, playing a crucial part in ending military dictatorship in 1991. Its leader at the time, Meles Zenawi, became president and later the elected Prime Minister, maintaining power until 2012. Zenawi is credited with establishing Ethiopia’s ethno-federal system. Even though the ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, comprised other political parties, the TPLF was the most influential.
Despite making up only around 6% of the population, compared to the Oromos with 34% and the Amharas at 27%, the TPLF remained dominant. Over time, allegations of marginalization and calls for better representation led to protests, and in response, Abiy was chosen as the new leader of the government.
Abiy Ahmed’s Perspective
As the first Oromo leader, Abiy claims his actions are not driven by ethnic biases, instead, they’re meant to rectify historical power imbalances and maintain peaceful relations.
Potential Ramifications
The Tigray conflict has potential regional implications, with rockets being fired into Eritrea and the neighboring Amhara region. The TPLF’s sizeable force and its border with Sudan raise fears the conflict may intensify. The TPLF had a friendly relationship with Sudan’s deposed dictator Omar Bashir, and with an unresolved border dispute, any continued alliances may prolong the crisis. Furthermore, reports of atrocities targeting civilians have increased, causing individuals to seek refuge in Sudan.
India Ethiopia Relations
Ethiopia is a significant recipient of India’s long-term concessional credit in Africa. Some sectors that have seen Indian investment include rural electrification, the sugar industry, and railways with Lines of Credit worth over USD1 billion being sanctioned.
Bilateral trade between Ethiopia and India stood at an impressive USD 1.28 billion in 2018-19. Indian businesses have a strong presence in Ethiopia, with more than 586 companies employing over 55,000 people and a licensed investment north of USD 4 billion.
Moving Forward
To ease tensions, Abiy could engage with regional political leaderships, especially the TPLF, and work towards a peaceful resolution. A balance between different ethnicities and regions is necessary, as is ensuring civilian safety. Here, organizations like the African Union can play a pivotal role.