The recent deployment of France’s military into the eastern Mediterranean Sea offers a telling scenario of the brewing tensions between Greece and Turkey over recently unearthed gas reserves. In a turn of events that has gripped international attention, the French military is seen as a beacon of security, ensuring free movement, respect for international law, and the safety of maritime navigation in the region.
The Provocative Standoff
The origins of the standoff can be traced back to the European Union (EU) and its Western Asia and North Africa partners’ intent to construct a gas pipeline from the Mediterranean to mainland Europe. This strategic move designed to transport abundant natural gas reserves has been met with trepidation from Turkey, who felt excluded from the project. The EU posing an apparent slight towards Turkey could seemingly help reduce its dependency on Russia.
The EastMed Gas Forum, formed in 2019 by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine, further exacerbated the situation by excluding Turkey yet again.
Undeterred Turkish Countermeasures
In response to the EU’s pipeline project, Turkey reached an agreement with Libya to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extending from Turkey’s southern shores to Libya’s northern coastline across the Mediterranean. However, this move sparked outrage from Greece, arguing that Turkey’s EEZ infringed on their maritime sovereignty. Greece later announced its own EEZ with Egypt, which directly conflicted with Turkey’s zone.
Turkey didn’t take this lightly and responded by sending its survey ship near the Kastellorizo island area, which was featured in the Greece-Egypt agreement. This animosity is not new, as Greece and Turkey have experienced strain in their relations, resulting in war on three different occasions over the past forty years.
Unpacking the Issues Involved
At the heart of this conflict are overlapping claims to hydrocarbon resources in the region. Both Turkey and Greece hold conflicting views on their continental shelves’ extent in waters abounding with mostly Greek islands.
Turkey argues that, despite owning the longest coastline in the eastern Mediterranean, it’s confined to a narrow strip of water because of Greece’s extended continental shelf anchored on numerous Greek islands situated near its shore.
The issues have now escalated to a point where involvement from Europe, West Asia, and North Africa is becoming more prominent. France, which commands the EU’s most formidable military force, has supported Greece and Cyprus openly. An emerging alliance includes Greece, Cyprus, Italy, and France, backed by Egypt, Israel, and the UAE. In contrast, Turkey, a significant power in the Mediterranean, stands relatively isolated.
Navigating a Strategic Way Forward
An open conflict with Turkey does not bode well for the EU’s plans to transport gas from Israel’s coast to Europe via Cyprus and Italy. It is in everyone’s interest to de-escalate tensions and seek a diplomatic and mutually agreeable resolution to this gas conflict.
Excluding Turkey, which boasts a long Mediterranean coast, can be seen as unwise. Conversely, allowing a resurgent Turkey to intimidate smaller regional powers could also lead to strategic disaster. It is now up to the EU to tread this delicate balance carefully between these two options.