A recent report suggests that the growth of global agricultural productivity is not keeping up with the increasing demand for food, a trend exacerbated by climate change. The findings were presented in collaboration with the World Food Prize Foundation’s annual conference.
The Lagging Pace of Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
Total Factor Productivity, or TFP, is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.36% (2020-2019), which falls short of the Global Agricultural Productivity Index annual target of 1.73%. This target rate is set to sustainably meet consumer needs for food and bioenergy by 2050.
Difference between Yield and TFP Explained
Yield refers to output per unit of a single input – for instance, crop quantity harvested per hectare of land. Increases in yield could be a result of productivity growth, but can also be achieved by applying more inputs, a process known as input intensification. On the other hand, TFP measures the relationship between multiple agricultural inputs and outputs.
Understanding Low TFP Growth
Various factors can cause low TFP growth, including climate change, weather events, fiscal policy changes, market conditions, and investments in agricultural research, development, and infrastructure.
Regional Agricultural Productivity Variances
Regions around the world are experiencing varying degrees of TFP growth. Areas like Africa and Latin America, where climates are drier, see up to 34% slower productivity growth due to climate change. High-income countries, such as those in North America and Europe, exhibit modest TFP growth, while middle-income countries like India, China, Brazil, and former Soviet republics show strong growth rates. However, low-income regions like Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing a contraction in TFP at an average rate of 0.31% per year.
Consequences of Stunted Productivity Growth
Without sufficient productivity growth, the consequences could be grave. Predictions show a potential loss of biodiverse areas and forests due to increased agricultural land use. Diet-related diseases could lead to USD 2T in economic losses and 4 million deaths annually. By 2050, poor irrigation practices could result in the degradation of 90% of the earth’s soils by erosion.
Suggestions for Improving Agricultural Productivity
Several measures can be taken to improve agricultural productivity. These include investing in agricultural research and development, embracing science-and-information-based technologies, improving transport, information and finance infrastructure, nurturing partnerships for sustainable agriculture, expanding and improving local, regional and global trade, and reducing post-harvest loss and food waste.
India’s Robust TFP Growth and Challenges Ahead
India continues to experience strong TFP and output growth, with recent data revealing an average annual TFP growth rate of 2.81% and output growth of 3.17% (2010–2019.) However, by the end of the century, India could face a 5 degrees Celsius increase in mean summer temperature, which combined with changing rainfall patterns, could reduce yields for major food crops by about 10% by 2035.
Indian Initiatives to Sustain Agriculture
India responds to these challenges with several initiatives. The Soil Health Card Scheme aims to educate farmers about appropriate nutrient levels for crops based on soil health. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) promotes sustainable agriculture through climate change adaptation measures. The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) works towards providing end-to-end irrigation supply chain solutions.
