In 2024, the average global temperature anomaly exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5 degree Celsius. This marked point in ongoing climate change trends. Data from the World Meteorological Organization indicated that the annual average temperature reached approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. The European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 18 of the last 19 months recorded temperatures above this threshold. The January 2025 temperature spike reached an alarming 1.75°C, despite the cooling effects of the La Niña phenomenon.
Climate Change Research and Implications
Recent studies highlight the seriousness of sustained warming. Research published in *Nature Climate Change* by leading scientists warns that without stringent climate action, the world will likely experience sustained warming above 1.5°C within the next two decades. This temperature rise is not an isolated incident but signals the start of a new climate era.
About the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses warming over long periods, typically decades. The recent findings suggest that crossing the 1.5°C threshold may soon become a regular occurrence, with risks associated with this level of warming.
Long-Term Climate Trends
Research indicates that the first year exceeding the 1.5°C threshold can predict long-term warming trends. Studies using climate models show a high probability that the first year of crossing this threshold aligns with a 20-year period of sustained warming. This correlation puts stress on the urgency of addressing climate change.
Recent Findings on Arctic Impact
A separate study revealed that the Arctic is already altered due to current warming levels. Even if temperatures stabilise at 1.5°C, the Arctic cryosphere will continue to shrink. This finding raises concerns about the long-term impacts of climate change on polar regions.
Role of External Factors
External factors such as volcanic eruptions and changes in aerosol emissions may influence recent warming trends. These elements are not fully accounted for in climate models, suggesting that warming may be even more pronounced than current data indicates.
Future Projections
Models project that if current trends continue, the 1.5°C threshold will likely be crossed within the next two decades. Various scenarios indicate that even with more stringent climate policies, there remains a high probability of exceeding this critical limit.
Urgency for Climate Action
Experts emphasise the need for immediate and substantial climate action. The alarming temperature increases and their implications highlight the risks associated with inaction. The consensus among scientists is clear – 2024 marks the onset of a new climate era defined by escalating risks.
Questions for UPSC:
- Examine the implications of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold on global ecosystems and human societies.
- Critically discuss the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in mitigating climate change impacts.
- Analyse the role of external factors in influencing global temperature trends in recent years.
- Estimate the potential consequences of sustained warming above 1.5°C on Arctic ecosystems and global sea levels.
Answer Hints:
1. Examine the implications of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold on global ecosystems and human societies.
- Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to natural disasters.
- Loss of biodiversity and habitat destruction as species struggle to adapt to rapid changes.
- Threats to food security due to altered agricultural conditions and crop yields.
- Health risks from heatwaves, air quality deterioration, and the spread of infectious diseases.
- Socio-economic impacts, including displacement of populations and increased migration pressures.
2. Critically discuss the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in mitigating climate change impacts.
- The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with a target of 1.5°C.
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are voluntary, leading to varying levels of commitment.
- Recent data indicates that current global policies are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target.
- There is a lack of accountability mechanisms for countries failing to meet their commitments.
- However, the agreement has raised global awareness and encouraged climate action initiatives.
3. Analyse the role of external factors in influencing global temperature trends in recent years.
- Volcanic eruptions can release large amounts of ash and gases, temporarily cooling the atmosphere.
- Changes in aerosol emissions from shipping and industry can impact cloud formation and climate.
- Natural climate phenomena, such as La Niña and El Niño, affect global temperatures.
- Land use changes, deforestation, and urbanization contribute to localized warming effects.
- These external factors complicate climate models, potentially underestimating the warming trend.
4. Estimate the potential consequences of sustained warming above 1.5°C on Arctic ecosystems and global sea levels.
- Arctic ecosystems will face habitat loss, affecting species like polar bears and seals.
- Melting ice caps and glaciers will contribute to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities.
- Changes in ocean currents due to ice melt can disrupt global climate patterns.
- Permafrost thawing may release amounts of greenhouse gases, exacerbating warming.
- Loss of biodiversity in the Arctic can have cascading effects on global ecological balance.
