The study titled “Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall” conducted by Advancing Earth and Space Sciences (AGU), underscores that the Indian Monsoon has visibly changed due to Global Warming. This comprehensive study explores synchronous extreme rainfall events during the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) from 1901 to 2019.
The research brings to light the stable presence of interconnected extreme hubs in Central India, hinting at the geographical gathering of concurrent severe weather incidents in this region.
Examining Rainfall Trends in India
In spite of the increasing variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) over the last century, synchronous extreme rainfall events have consistently concentrated within a specific geographical region, primarily in Central India. This pattern is observed even amidst rising variability and complexity.
A network of highly interconnected extreme rainfall hubs persistently exists in Central India, exhibiting strong local connections and emphasizing a stable synchronization of extreme events in this region over a prolonged period.
The Correlation with Climatic Patterns
India’s monsoon forecasts heavily depend on its relation to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. Though this relation holds only about 60% of the time, Indian Rainfall events show a correlation with El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO). There is more synchronization during strong El Niño periods and less during La Niña conditions.
The Implications for Predictability
Despite the increasing variability and complexity of ISMR, the persistent nature of extreme rainfall synchronization in Central India provides crucial insights for predicting synchronous extremes. This knowledge can aid in developing effective adaptation strategies and risk management during the monsoon season.
Implications of the Findings on Forecasting Methods
Contrary to the belief that stationary elements in climate systems have ceased to exist due to global warming, the Indian monsoon’s ability to synchronize heavy rainfall events subvert this belief. This implies that certain consistent patterns, like synchronized extreme rainfall events along specific corridors, continue even in a shifting climate.
Understanding the dynamics of these geographic corridors could enhance the accuracy of forecasts significantly. The research suggests it is not necessarily increasing model resolution or incurring higher computational costs that will improve the forecasts, but delving into the dynamics of synchronization within the existing models.
Refining Risk Reduction Strategies
Accurate forecasts of large-scale extreme rainfall events are essential for mitigating risks in sectors like agriculture, water management, energy, transportation, and public health. By leveraging better forecasts, risk reduction strategies can be refined and preparedness and mitigation can be boosted.
Leveraging India’s Resources
Due to its strong modelling capacity and computational resources, India is well-positioned to further its study into understanding synchronization dynamics, hence developing more optimized forecasts. This could potentially minimize the impacts of extreme rainfall events across different sectors.
Identifying Factors Influencing the Indian Monsoon
Several factors influence the Indian monsoon including the Himalayan Mountains, Thar Desert, and the Indian Ocean. For instance, during summer, the Himalayas prevent cool, dry air from the north from flowing into the region, creating a pressure gradient that draws in warm, moist air from the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the Thar Desert acts as a rain shadow area, resulting in little rainfall due to the barrier created by the Aravalli Mountain range. Lastly, the Indian Ocean contributes significantly to the formation of monsoon winds in India. Its warm and moist air interacts with the low-pressure system over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in the formation of the monsoon winds.
Past Questions for UPSC Civil Services Examination
A previous year question from 2017 asked for an understanding of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in relation to the forecasting of the Indian monsoon. Another question from 2015 asked candidates to discuss their views on the changing behavior of the Indian monsoon resulting from the humanized landscape.
