The International Labour Organisation (ILO) recently released the World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report. It illuminated an unsettling forecast that global unemployment rates are predicted to rise in 2024 due to increasing inequality and stagnant productivity.
Key Highlights of the Report
Even in deteriorating economic conditions, the global labor market has shown resilience. There have been improvements in both unemployment and job gap rates (the number of individuals without a job who are seeking employment). However, despite a modest improvement in the unemployment rate from 2022 to 2023, the report anticipates a worsening outlook for the labor market.
Global Unemployment Trends
The global unemployment rate was at 5.1% in 2023, a minor improvement from 2022. Nevertheless, the report predicts a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in 2024 as an additional two million workers will seek employment.
Labor Market Disparities
The recovery from the pandemic is uneven across countries, with emerging vulnerabilities and crises compromising prospects for social justice. High-income countries show a lower job gap rate than low-income countries. Income inequality appears to be widening, with decreasing disposable income in most G20 countries.
Challenges of Working Poverty and Informal Work
The number of workers living in extreme and moderate poverty increased in 2023, indicating a persistent challenge of working poverty. Simultaneously, rates of informal work are predicted to remain high, amounting to approximately 58% of the global workforce in 2024.
Gender Gap and Youth Unemployment
Though women’s participation in the labor force has rebounded rapidly post-pandemic, a gender gap remains, particularly in emerging and developing nations. High rates of youth unemployment and the number of young people not in employment, education, or training pose challenges for long-term employment prospects.
Productivity Growth and Structural Concerns
The post-pandemic boost in labor productivity has waned, returning to the low levels seen in the past decade. Skills shortages and the dominance of large digital monopolies impede productivity growth. The report highlights that these imbalances may be structurally ingrained rather than just consequences of the pandemic recovery.
Real Wage Trends in G20 Countries
Despite global challenges, real wages in India and Turkey have increased compared to other G20 countries, outpacing inflation and contributing to real wage improvements. However, real wage decreases were recorded in several G20 countries, notably Brazil, Italy, and Indonesia.
About the International Labour Organisation (ILO)
Established in 1919 as part of the Treaty of Versailles after World War I, the ILO became a specialized agency of the United Nations in 1946. It is unique in bringing together representatives of governments, employers, and workers. Serving as a platform to promote social justice, it received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1969 for improving international peace and fraternity and advancing justice for workers.