Commencing the year 2023, India finds itself facing distinct diplomatic and military challenges and opportunities. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s audacity present significant confrontations. The global insecurity brought by a highly infectious Covid-19 variant emanating from China, coupled with the impending economic slump, further complicates matters. However, India, as the G20 Chair, anticipates shaping discussions on global issues. Its non-permanent membership status in the UN Security Council for two years facilitates her contributions to global conversations.
Review of Major Concerns in 2022
The Russia-Ukraine war significantly disrupted the post-World War II global order, affecting food and energy security worldwide and pushing the global economy towards a recession. China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific region has drawn attention, with India experiencing this hostility at its borders. Following the Taliban’s recapture of Afghanistan, India reopened its embassy in Kabul and reinstated humanitarian aid. The Sri Lankan economic and political crisis presented another significant challenge. Meanwhile, India maintained low-key engagements with Myanmar, primarily providing assistance to the military junta regime.
Outlook of Challenges and Opportunities for India in 2023
China’s recent audacious actions indicate it’s challenging the current state of affairs not only in eastern Ladakh but in other sectors as well. India’s strategic response has been to resist this bully-like behavior but at a high cost. Given that China considers itself a superpower, more clashes and competing interests with India are foreseeable. As a long-standing supplier of defense equipment, Russia remains crucial to India, despite the recent complications caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Meanwhile, India’s role as host of the G20 summit presents an opportunity to showcase its rise on the global stage. The country aims to voice the concerns of the Global South and mediate between Russian and Western leaders. Progressively, India will work to alleviate European and American partners’ concerns following its decision to purchase cheap oil and not join the West against Russia.
Neighborhood Challenges: Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh
As Sri Lanka’s crisis continues to require India’s attention, India also finds itself part of the political conversation in Maldives. With elections scheduled in Maldives and Bangladesh in September 2023 and January 2024 respectively, India has vested interests in these neighboring nations’ political outcomes. Nepal’s political scene has also undergone a dramatic transformation, with Beijing’s influence becoming more apparent.
Pakistan’s Crucial Year and Implications for India
Pakistan’s upcoming elections in 2023 present another scenario for India to observe. The attitude of the new civilian government and the Army chief towards India will significantly influence the future steps in their relationship.
India’s Way Forward
In light of these circumstances, India will need to bolster its domestic efforts through savvy alliances. While forging new friendships, maintaining long-standing relations will also be crucial, including engagements with challenging countries like China. Simultaneously, resolving longstanding issues with smaller neighbors which have stymied foreign policy for many decades is essential. As the country navigates through this challenging landscape, there are plenty of questions to ponder, such as the influence of domestic factors on India-Sri Lanka relations or how ethical considerations can help resolve international conflicts and tensions.
