The recent SIPRI Yearbook 2020 report has revealed that India, Pakistan, and China have all heightened their nuclear capabilities in the past year. The report comes as a significant one from the Swedish think tank, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), renowned for its research on international armament and conflict. With this alarming trend of nuclear armament in focus, let’s delve into the key points presented in the report.
A Deep Dive into the Report Data
The data put forth by the SIPRI Yearbook 2020 points to nine nations currently possessing nuclear weapons, namely the USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Owing to the ‘highly uncertain’ number of nuclear heads, North Korean numbers were excluded from the report. The tally of nuclear warheads across these countries shows a decrease from 13,865 in 2019 to 13,400 in 2020.
This overall reduction can largely be attributed to the dismantlement of outdated nuclear weapons by Russia and the USA under the New START initiative – these two nations together accounting for over 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads. Despite the drawdown, Russia and the USA have both revealed comprehensive plans for the replacement and modernization of their nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
India, Pakistan and China on a Nuclear Ramp-up
The report underscores that India, Pakistan, and China have not only augmented their nuclear stockpile but are also in the process of significantly modernising their arsenals. China and Pakistan lead India in terms of the size of nuclear weapons stockpile.
The expansion and diversification of nuclear forces are gradually being adopted by both India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, China is on its way to develop a nuclear triad, composed of new land and sea-based missiles along with nuclear-capable aircraft.
The Opaqueness of Nuclear Arsenals Data
The report also brings to light the lack of transparency with regards to the state of nuclear arsenals and capabilities of nuclear-armed countries. This issue arises from governments’ reticence to disclose comprehensive information about their arsenals.
While India and Pakistan have revealed some details about their missile tests, they have not shed much light on the status or size of their arsenals. Adding to this opacity, the USA halted the practice of public disclosure of its stockpile’s size in 2019.
Concerns over New START Future
The report draws attention to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) 2010, under which the USA and Russia have curtailed their nuclear arsenals. The treaty is set to end in February 2021 unless an extension is agreed upon by both sides.
Negotiations for an extension have reached a deadlock due to the USA’s demand that China be included in any future nuclear arms reduction talks – a proposition China has flatly dismissed. The stalemate over New START, coupled with the disintegration of the Soviet-USA Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty 1987) in 2019, indicates possible termination of bilateral nuclear arms control agreements.
Fanning the fears are instances of new or enlarged roles given to nuclear weapons in the military plans and doctrines of both countries, signifying a crucial reversal from the post-Cold War trend of gradually marginalising nuclear weapons.
The Imperative of Nuclear Monitoring
In the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions, the report emphasises the need for stringent measures to keep track of nuclear arsenals and thwart the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials.
With the increasing complexities in international relations, the question remains: Are we prepared to address the looming nuclear threat?