The United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report for 2019 presents a bright picture for India. The report anticipates that India will hold its position as the world’s fastest-growing large economy in both 2019 and 2020.
India’s Projected Economic Growth
According to the WESP report, India’s economy is set to grow at an impressive rate over the next few years. Specific growth rates are projected to be 7.4% during 2018-19, 7.6% in 2019-20, and another 7.4% in 2020-21. This tremendous growth trajectory is primarily attributed to robust private consumption, expansionary fiscal policies, and the benefits accruing from previous economic reforms.
Challenges to India’s Economical Rise
Despite these favourable predictions, it is essential to highlight that India’s path to sustained and robust economic growth faces certain challenges. The main hurdle to overcome is achieving a sustained recovery of private investment. Additionally, there are concerns regarding the job creation rates in the formal sector. This has resulted in many workers being underemployed or confined to low-salary jobs. Achieving a more inclusive development trajectory involves strengthening labour market indicators, which is a crucial aspect.
India’s Labour Market and Female Participation
A concerning trend in India’s economic landscape is the declining female labour force participation. Despite strong economic growth, women’s presence in the workforce remains low and shows signs of receding further.
Comparisons with International Monetary Fund’s Projections
The projections made by the United Nations echo those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF also forecasts an expansion of 7.5% in India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2020, and a further 7.7% in FY21.
Global Economic Outlook
Comparatively, global growth is expected to remain at 3% in both 2019 and 2020. The global economy faces numerous risks, including escalated trade disputes, abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, and intensifying climate risks.
| Years | India’s Economic Growth Rate | Global Economic Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-2019 | 7.4% | 3% |
| 2019-2020 | 7.6% | 3% |
| 2020-2021 | 7.4% | ? |
About the World Economic Situation and Prospects Report
The WESP report is a collaborative product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the five United Nations regional commissions. These commissions cover Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific, and Western Asia. Their collective insights form a comprehensive picture of economic conditions and prospects around the globe.
