According to data collated by the Sample Registration System (SRS) of the Registrar General of India, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in the country saw a decline, dropping to 898 in the triennium culminating in 2017. Along with the SRB, the fertility rate also observed a downslide. It slumped from 2.3 in 2016 to 2.2 in 2017, which aligns closely with the replacement level of fertility of 2.1.
These changes in demographics are well-aligned with projections put forth by the United Nations, which has been revising its population estimates downward in recent years. The anticipated year for India to overtake China’s population has been pushed back from 2022 (as per the 2015 report) to 2027 (according to the 2019 report).
Indians’ Preference for Sons: An Economic Perspective
The varying trends indicate a shift in familial dynamics. Although families are desiring fewer children overall, the preference for sons remains significant. This proclivity was elaborated in the Economic Survey 2017-18, which highlighted the continued preference for sons over daughters in Indian society.
States such as Telangana, Delhi, Kerala, and Bihar have experienced the most pronounced deterioration in the sex ratio at birth in recent times. While the use of sex-selection techniques is primarily responsible for this trend, societal norms that favor male progeny also significantly contribute to poor sex ratios, especially in states like Bihar.
Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Sex Ratio
In more urbanized states, wealthier households display a stronger preference for sons. This is due to misconceived socioeconomic reasoning that stems from longstanding cultural norms and biases. The SRS data further reveals an increase in the economically active population (15-59 years old) and the elderly population (60+ years old) within India. The former group comprises 65.4% of the population, while the latter accounted for 8.2% in 2017.
Data-Driven Insights From the Sample Registration System
| Year | Sex Ratio at Birth | Fertility Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 908 | 2.3 |
| 2017 | 898 | 2.2 |
The Role of The Office of Registrar General in Collating Data
The Office of the Registrar General operates under the Ministry of Home Affairs and launched the Sample Registration System (SRS) scheme in 1964-65 on a trial basis. With successful outcomes, the initiative was fully implemented from 1969-70 onward.
The SRS employs a dual record system aimed at providing regular data updates. Field investigations under the Sample Registration System involve persistent enumeration of births and deaths in sample villages and urban blocks. This is conducted by resident part-time enumerators, and supplemented by independent six-monthly surveys performed by full-time supervisors.
The data collected from both sources are then matched to eliminate discrepancies and duplicates, thereby ensuring an unduplicated count of accurate events. The SRS sampling frame undergoes revisions every ten years, based on the findings of the most recent Census.