India’s Carbon Emissions Growth Slows In 2025

India’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are set to rise by only 1.4% in 2025. This is much lower than the 4% growth recorded in 2024. The Global Carbon Project’s latest data shows India’s emissions will increase from 3.19 billion tonnes in 2024 to 3.22 billion tonnes in 2025. This slowdown contrasts with higher growth rates in previous years and reflects important environmental and economic changes.

Recent Emission Trends in India

India’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shown a marked reduction in growth over the last decade. Between 2015 and 2024, the average annual increase was 3.6%, down from 6.4% during 2005-2014. The current year’s modest rise is partly due to favourable weather, such as an early monsoon that reduced electricity demand for cooling. Strong growth in renewable energy also helped limit coal consumption.

Factors Influencing Emission Changes

Emissions from fossil fuels cover sectors like power generation, transport, industry, buildings and heating. These sectors contribute about 90% of global CO2 emissions. India’s slower emission growth is linked to improved energy efficiency and a shift towards cleaner energy sources. The expanding economic base means more output is generated per unit of carbon emitted, improving carbon intensity.

Global Context of Emissions

Worldwide, fossil fuel CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record 38.1 billion tonnes. Despite years of climate action, global emissions have not yet declined. Land-use change emissions, such as deforestation, are expected to fall in 2025, helping overall CO2 levels to remain stable at about 42 billion tonnes.

Role of Renewable Energy and Weather

Renewable energy growth in India has been a key driver in curbing emission rises. Increased solar and wind capacity reduces reliance on coal. Additionally, weather patterns like strong monsoons lower energy demand for cooling and irrigation. This combination has contributed to the first recorded decline in CO2 emissions from India’s electricity sector in early 2025 compared to the previous year.

Significance of Emission Data and Reporting

The Global Carbon Project provides timely estimates of emissions but these are not official country figures. Official data require extensive sectoral analysis and take years to compile. The GCP’s Global Carbon Budget study is widely regarded as a reliable source for tracking trends and informing climate policy discussions, especially during global conferences like COP30.

Challenges Ahead

India’s emissions growth slowing is a positive sign but absolute emissions continue to rise. The country faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Continued expansion of renewables and energy efficiency improvements will be critical to achieving long-term climate goals.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Discuss in the light of India’s economic growth and energy needs, the challenges of reducing carbon dioxide emissions while ensuring development.
2. Critically examine the role of renewable energy in India’s climate change mitigation strategy and its impact on fossil fuel consumption.
3. Explain the global carbon cycle and how land-use changes contribute to carbon dioxide emissions with suitable examples from different countries.
4. With suitable examples, discuss the impact of climate variability such as monsoon patterns on energy consumption and carbon emissions in India.

Answer Hints:

1. Discuss in the light of India’s economic growth and energy needs, the challenges of reducing carbon dioxide emissions while ensuring development.

1. India’s rapid economic growth drives increased energy demand, primarily from fossil fuels like coal and oil.
2. Balancing industrialization, urbanization, and infrastructure development with emission reduction is complex.
3. Energy access and affordability remain crucial for poverty alleviation and social development.
4. Transitioning to low-carbon technologies requires investment and policy support.
5. Improving energy efficiency and carbon intensity can moderate emissions without hindering growth.
6. Challenges include managing rising emissions amid expanding economic base and dependence on coal.

2. Critically examine the role of renewable energy in India’s climate change mitigation strategy and its impact on fossil fuel consumption.

1. Renewables (solar, wind, hydro) have seen strong growth, reducing reliance on coal for power generation.
2. Renewable capacity expansion contributes to slowing emission growth and first recorded decline in electricity sector emissions.
3. Intermittency and grid integration remain challenges for renewables’ full potential.
4. Renewables help diversify energy mix, improve energy security, and reduce carbon intensity.
5. Despite growth, coal consumption still due to base-load power needs and economic factors.
6. Policy incentives and falling costs have accelerated renewable adoption but fossil fuels remain dominant.

3. Explain the global carbon cycle and how land-use changes contribute to carbon dioxide emissions with suitable examples from different countries.

1. The global carbon cycle involves exchange of carbon among atmosphere, oceans, land, and biosphere.
2. Land-use changes like deforestation and ecosystem degradation release stored carbon as CO2.
3. Examples – Amazon deforestation (Brazil) increases emissions; peatland drainage (Indonesia) releases carbon.
4. Agricultural expansion and urbanization also contribute to land-use emissions globally.
5. Land-use emissions account for about 10% of global CO2 emissions, influencing overall carbon budget.
6. Reforestation and afforestation can act as carbon sinks, mitigating emissions from land-use changes.

4. With suitable examples, discuss the impact of climate variability such as monsoon patterns on energy consumption and carbon emissions in India.

1. Monsoon timing and intensity affect electricity demand, especially for cooling and irrigation.
2. Early or strong monsoons reduce temperature extremes, lowering energy consumption for air conditioning.
3. Example – Early monsoon in 2025 led to reduced coal use and decline in electricity sector CO2 emissions.
4. Drought or weak monsoon years increase reliance on fossil fuels due to higher cooling and water pumping needs.
5. Climate variability adds uncertainty to energy planning and emissions forecasting.
6. Adaptive energy policies and diversified energy sources help manage impacts of climate variability.