According to the recent data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), India’s population is showing signs of stabilization due to a declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR). This is a significant development, considering the country’s vast population.
The TFR refers to the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years. It’s a key indicator of population growth trends. The data reveals a consistent decline in TFR across most Indian states over the last five years, more prominently among urban women.
State-Wise Breakdown of TFR Trends
Among the states, Sikkim recorded the lowest TFR with an average of 1.1 children per woman, and Bihar featured the highest TFR of 3 children per woman. However, it is noteworthy that 19 out of the 22 surveyed states reported ‘below-replacement level’ TFRs. The ‘replacement level fertility’ refers to the average number of children born per woman required for a population to replace itself without migration and is typically around 2.1 children per woman.
Trends in Contraceptive Usage
An important factor contributing to this decline in TFR is the increased use of modern contraception methods. The NFHS-5 data indicates a substantial rise in the overall contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) in most states. This means more people now have access to and are using contraceptives compared to before.
Government Measures for Population Control
Several government initiatives have played a crucial role in this demographic shift. For instance, during his Independence Day Speech in 2019, the Prime Minister appealed to the nation to consider population control as a form of patriotism. Subsequently, the government launched Mission Parivar Vikas in 2017 to increase access to contraceptives and family planning services in high fertility districts. Additionally, schemes like the National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme (NFPIS) and Compensation scheme for sterilization acceptors were also introduced to incentivize population control.
A Contradictory Perspective
However, while the NFHS-5 data indicates that India’s population is stabilising, some argue that the government’s push for population reduction and a “two child policy” might be unnecessary. The argument stems from the fear that such policies could lead to issues like gender imbalance, undocumented children, and a dearth of educated young people – problems that China faced due to its one-child policy.
About the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)
The NFHS is a large-scale, multi-round survey conducted throughout India to gather representative data related to health and family welfare. This data serves as a critical input for strengthening existing programmes and devising new policy interventions.
Way Forward
While India’s population has already crossed 125 crores and is expected to surpass China’s in the next few decades, a restricted child policy may not be the best solution. Instead, the government and authorities should leverage the insights from NFHS-5 to tweak current policies and programs for better population control and management.