As per the United Nations’ projection, it is predicted that China will witness an absolute decline in its population for the first time in 2022. While in 2023, the population of India is projected to reach 1,428.63 million, surpassing China’s population of 1,425.67 million.
The Drivers of Population Change
The principal drivers of population change can be classified into two categories: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Mortality.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
From 1992-93 to 2019-21, India witnessed a significant decline in TFR from 3.4 to 2, especially in rural areas. The TFR, the average number of births by women aged 15-49 based on surveys for a particular period/year, has reached a replacement-level fertility of 2.1 demonstrating a considerable advancement in family planning measures and general health standards.
Fall in Mortality
The Crude Death Rate (CDR) fell to single digits for the first time in China in 1974, followed by India in 1994. Increased education levels, public health services, vaccination programs, access to food and medical care, and provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities have led to a significant reduction in mortality rates.
Life Expectancy at Birth
Between 1950 and 2020, life expectancy at birth significantly increased from 43.7 to 78.1 years for China and from 41.7 to 70.1 years for India. This rise in life expectancy usually results in a rising population.
Implications of Population Trends for China
China’s TFR is way below the replacement rate of 2.1, despite ending its one-child policy in 2016. UN projects China’s population to be around 1.31 billion in 2050, a considerable dip from its peak in 2021. The average age of the population is expected to rise to 50.7 years by 2050. The declining working-age population gives rise to a potential challenge with more dependents and fewer working people.
India’s Measures to Control Population
India implemented a state-sponsored family planning program in the 1950s and established a Central Family Planning Board focusing on sterilization in 1956. In 1976, India introduced its first National Population Policy. The Policy aims to stabilize India’s population by 2045 through integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care, contraception, and healthcare infrastructure.
National Family Health Survey (NFHS)
The NFHS is a large-scale, multi-round survey conducted throughout India to provide essential data on health and family welfare necessary for policy and program purposes.
Population Education Programme
Realizing the key role of education in addressing the growing population rate, the Ministry of Education launched a Population Education Programme in 1980. This central sector scheme introduces Population Education in the formal education system.
Future Possibilities and Challenges
India has an opportunity to reap a demographic dividend as its working-age population’s share of the total population will peak around 57% by mid-2030s. But this advantage comes with challenges that need appropriate measures. These include the creation of meaningful employment opportunities, preparation with suitable infrastructure, conducive social welfare schemes, massive investments in quality education and health, and skilling for those already in the 25-64 age bracket. New skills and opportunities for women are also needed in a 3 trillion dollar economy.
