The year 2025 marked a sharp rupture in the post–World War II global order. What had endured for nearly eight decades — a loose but workable compact of institutions, alliances, and norms — began to fray decisively. For India, the year was defined by simultaneous shocks and openings: turbulence in ties with the United States, a dangerous military escalation with Pakistan, upheaval in neighbouring states, and a renewed assertion of strategic autonomy amid deepening global fragmentation.
A global compact unravels under Trump 2.0
The return of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term altered the geopolitical temperature worldwide. His transactional worldview — sceptical of alliances, dismissive of multilateral restraint, and unapologetically protectionist — accelerated the erosion of post-war economic and security norms.
For New Delhi, early engagement after Trump’s re-election initially appeared promising. Trade talks resumed, and there was optimism that the personal chemistry between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi could buffer strategic ties. That optimism faded rapidly when Washington imposed a punitive 50% tariff on Indian exports — the highest levied on any country — and publicly claimed credit for “stopping” a war between India and Pakistan. The forced reduction in India’s oil imports from Russia further strained trust, underscoring the limits of partnership under Trump’s America First doctrine.
India–Pakistan: a new redline after a brief war
South Asia witnessed one of its most dangerous moments in decades after a terror attack on civilians in Pahalgam triggered Operation Sindoor. Though the operation was paused after four days, India articulated a clear doctrinal shift: nuclear deterrence would no longer shield Pakistan from the consequences of terrorism, and any major attack would be treated as an act of war.
The rise of Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir as Field Marshal consolidated military dominance in Islamabad, drawing comparisons with Zia-ul-Haq. Late-year terror incidents near Delhi tested India’s resolve, but New Delhi chose calibrated restraint over escalation — signalling confidence without abandoning deterrence.
Wars without end: Ukraine and West Asia
Globally, the shadow of unresolved wars loomed large. The Russia–Ukraine conflict entered its fourth year, with Trump oscillating between pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy and public rebukes of Vladimir Putin. Negotiations remain stuck over territory and security guarantees, but India’s stakes have risen sharply, especially after Washington imposed tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil.
In West Asia, a Trump-brokered pause in the Gaza war brought temporary relief but little resolution. Israel’s direct strikes on Iran and even targets inside Qatar underlined the region’s volatility, while US–Israel coordination reached unprecedented levels. The fragile calm will determine whether projects like the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor can be revived.
Neighbourhood churn: Nepal and Bangladesh in transition
India’s immediate neighbourhood was equally unsettled. In Nepal, mass protests led by Gen Z activists toppled a corruption-tainted political order, resulting in an interim government headed by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. While elections are promised in 2026, the resurgence of monarchist sentiment and the army’s growing influence pose questions about democratic consolidation.
Bangladesh, meanwhile, remained fragile nearly 18 months after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. The interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus struggled with legitimacy amid renewed unrest, communal tensions, and concerns over the credibility of the forthcoming polls.
Strategic autonomy tested: China, Russia, and Canada
As relations with Washington cooled, India doubled down on its doctrine of strategic autonomy. Prime Minister Modi’s meetings with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at the SCO summit in Tianjin, followed by a bilateral visit by Putin to India, signalled New Delhi’s refusal to be boxed into rival camps.
Re-engagement with China progressed cautiously, with visa curbs lifted and flights restored after the Kazan summit, even as tens of thousands of troops remain deployed along the Line of Actual Control. Relations with Canada also saw a tentative reset after Prime Minister Mark Carney sought to firewall bilateral ties from the investigation into the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Europe emerges as a counterweight
One of the more positive strands of 2025 was India’s deepening engagement with Europe. New Delhi’s outreach to the European Union gained momentum, with leaders such as Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa, and French President Emmanuel Macron set to visit India. Trade negotiations with the EU promise market access and diversification at a time when US ties are uncertain.
What to note for Prelims?
- Operation Sindoor and India’s revised doctrine on terror and nuclear deterrence
- 50% US tariffs on India under Trump’s second term
- IMEC and its dependence on West Asian stability
- BRICS and Quad summits hosted by India
- India–EU trade negotiations and strategic convergence
What to note for Mains?
- Critically examine India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy amid great-power rivalry.
- Assess the implications of Trump’s second term for India–US relations.
- Discuss how neighbourhood instability affects India’s regional security calculus.
- Evaluate Europe’s role as a balancing partner in India’s foreign policy.
- Analyse the impact of prolonged global conflicts on India’s economic and energy security.
