The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in 2025 marks shift in South Asia’s water diplomacy. India halted the treaty citing Pakistan’s support for cross-border terrorism and invoked the principle of rebus sic stantibus under international law. This move has disrupted hydrological data sharing and cooperation, affecting flood management and water use in the Indus River basin.
Background of the Indus Waters Treaty
The IWT, signed in 1960, governs the use of the Indus River system shared by India and Pakistan. It allocates water rights and ensures cooperation on water management. The treaty has survived multiple conflicts and remained a key framework for bilateral water sharing.
Reasons for Suspension
India suspended the treaty after the Pahalgam incident in April 2025, linking Pakistan’s alleged cross-border terrorism to treaty violations. India invoked the Vienna Convention’s Article 62 citing fundamental changes in circumstances including security threats and altered demographics. India demands Pakistan to stop terrorism irreversibly before resuming the treaty.
Impact of Suspension on Hydrological Data Sharing
Suspension led to the cessation of vital data sharing such as flood forecasts, glacier monitoring, and river discharge volumes. This has heightened risks for Pakistan, which depends heavily on Indus basin water for agriculture. Despite suspension, India has shared some flood data on humanitarian grounds to reduce disaster impact.
Floods and Humanitarian Consequences
Recently, Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces faced devastating floods affecting millions. Over two million people were displaced and thousands of villages submerged. The absence of timely hydrological data increased vulnerability. India’s limited data sharing helped mitigate some damage but risks remain high.
Legal and Diplomatic Developments
The Permanent Court of Arbitration reaffirmed jurisdiction over treaty disputes and rejected unilateral suspension. India rejected the Court’s authority citing treaty provisions. Pakistan insists on full treaty implementation and urges India to restore normal functioning. The treaty remains in abeyance as of mid-2025.
Strategic and Political Dimensions
India leverages its position as upper riparian state to pressurise Pakistan. It plans to expedite hydro projects in Jammu & Kashmir without treaty consultations. Pakistan fears water diversion or blockage but India asserts its right to utilise western rivers fully. This stalemate reflects broader geopolitical tensions.
Water Management and Future Projects in India
India explores expanding water storage and canal networks to address growing water demands. Proposals include large-scale canal projects linking Jammu to northern and western states. These aim to improve water availability, flood control, and regional cooperation within India. Costs are high but seen as necessary for long-term water security.
Challenges and Opportunities
Building new dams and canals faces technical, environmental, and political challenges. Land acquisition in fertile plains may be easier than in mountainous areas. The projects could stabilise water supply for agriculture and urban centres. This infrastructure may also mitigate flood risks and reduce dependency on transboundary flows.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the role of international water treaties in maintaining regional peace and cooperation, taking the Indus Waters Treaty as an example.
- Examine the principle of rebus sic stantibus under the Vienna Convention and analyse its implications in international treaty law with suitable examples.
- Discuss in the light of transboundary river management, the challenges and opportunities in balancing upstream and downstream water rights in South Asia.
- Analyse the impact of climate change on river basin hydrology and flood management. How can infrastructure projects like canals and dams mitigate these effects?
