Israel’s War and West Asia’s Geopolitical Shift

The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel marked a turning point in West Asia’s geopolitics. The region’s fragile balance, built around US-led alliances and the Abraham Accords, was shattered. Israel launched an extensive military campaign against Hamas and its allies. The conflict exposed deep-rooted regional tensions and disrupted ongoing diplomatic efforts. The war’s fallout continues to reshape alliances, security strategies, and regional ambitions.

Pre-October 2023 Geopolitical Landscape

Before the attack, West Asia was witnessing a cautious normalisation of ties between Israel and Arab states. The Abraham Accords of 2020 had brought four Arab countries into diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia was close to joining. The US aimed to create a united front against Iran by integrating Israel into regional and global economic frameworks, including partnerships involving India. Iran remained a central power through its support for militant groups but faced growing regional isolation.

The October 7 Attack and Immediate Aftermath

Hamas’s surprise assault killed around 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages. The attack ended Israel’s sense of security and derailed diplomatic progress. Israel responded with overwhelming force, targeting Gaza and striking Iran-backed groups across multiple countries. The war’s declared goals were to destroy Hamas and free hostages. However, Israel’s broader ambition was to weaken Iran’s influence and reshape West Asia geopolitics with itself as the dominant power.

Israel’s Military Gains and Regional Impact

Israel severely damaged Hamas’s infrastructure and took control of large parts of Gaza. It weakened Hezbollah through strikes in Lebanon and capitalised on the Syrian regime’s collapse to reduce Iranian influence. Air raids targeted Iran’s nuclear and military assets. Despite these successes, Hamas remains resilient, transforming into an insurgency rooted in Palestinian nationalism. Israel’s military advances have not delivered lasting peace or security.

Strategic Challenges and Regional Reactions

Israel’s actions have backfired diplomatically. Arab states now view Israel as a threat rather than a partner. Saudi Arabia halted its normalisation plans, stalling major economic projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Gulf states diversified security ties, with Saudi Arabia signing a defence pact with Pakistan and Qatar receiving US security assurances. Israel’s bombing of Qatar, a US ally, further strained relations and questioned American guarantees in the region.

Endgame Uncertainty and Political Impasse

Despite military efforts, Israel lacks a clear end strategy. Hamas is not defeated, and the Palestinian issue remains central to regional instability. Iran continues its nuclear programme and retains influence through proxy groups. Israel’s diplomatic vision of a unipolar West Asia under its leadership has collapsed. The international community increasingly recognises Palestinian statehood. Israel faces isolation and mounting pressure to halt its military campaign, including from former US President Donald Trump.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of the Abraham Accords on West Asia’s geopolitical landscape and the challenges faced in sustaining these agreements.
2. Comment on the role of non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah in shaping the security dynamics of West Asia with suitable examples.
3. Explain the strategic significance of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ and its influence on regional conflicts and alliances.
4. What are the implications of shifting alliances in West Asia for global powers like the United States and India? Discuss with reference to recent developments.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of the Abraham Accords on West Asia’s geopolitical landscape and the challenges faced in sustaining these agreements.

1. Abraham Accords (2020) normalized relations between Israel and four Arab states, breaking decades of Arab-Israeli hostility.
2. Facilitated U.S.-led regional alignment against Iran, integrating Israel into economic and security frameworks.
3. Created new economic initiatives like I2U2 and IMEEC involving Israel, UAE, and the U.S.
4. Saudi Arabia’s near-normalization indicated potential wider Arab acceptance of Israel.
5. October 7 Hamas attack shattered trust, derailed Saudi normalization, and exposed fragility of accords.
6. Israel’s aggressive military actions, including against Qatar, alienated Gulf states, stalling economic corridors and cooperation.

2. Comment on the role of non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah in shaping the security dynamics of West Asia with suitable examples.

1. Hamas controls Gaza, rooted in Palestinian nationalism, and resists Israeli occupation through insurgency tactics.
2. October 7, 2023 Hamas attack killed ~1,200 Israelis and took hostages, triggering major Israeli military response.
3. Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a powerful political and military force, resisting Israeli strikes and maintaining influence.
4. Both groups are backed by Iran, forming part of the ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel and U.S. influence.
5. Israel’s strikes have weakened but not eliminated these groups, which adapt and sustain regional instability.
6. Non-state actors complicate conventional warfare, making conflict protracted and diplomatic solutions elusive.

3. Explain the strategic significance of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ and its influence on regional conflicts and alliances.

1. ‘Axis of resistance’ includes Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and allied militias opposing Israel and U.S. presence.
2. Iran uses proxies to project power, destabilize adversaries, and counterbalance Gulf-Israel-U.S. alliances.
3. Supports militant groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, sustaining asymmetric warfare capabilities.
4. Iran’s nuclear and missile programs provoke Israeli preemptive strikes and regional security concerns.
5. Axis shapes alliances by forcing Gulf states into security cooperation with Israel or diversifying partnerships.
6. Despite Israeli attacks, Iran retains influence and retaliates, maintaining a persistent threat in West Asia.

4. What are the implications of shifting alliances in West Asia for global powers like the United States and India? Discuss with reference to recent developments.

1. U.S. aimed to reduce direct involvement by encouraging Arab-Israel normalization and joint fronts against Iran.
2. Post-October 7, U.S. faces challenges as Gulf states reassess ties with Israel due to its aggressive policies.
3. Saudi Arabia halted normalization, signed defense pact with Pakistan; Qatar secured U.S. security guarantees, showing alliance diversification.
4. India’s role in I2U2 and IMEEC stalled due to regional instability and lack of Saudi participation.
5. U.S. security guarantees strained by Israeli strikes on U.S. allies (e.g., Qatar), complicating American influence.
6. Shifting alliances force global powers to recalibrate strategies amid rising regional tensions and uncertain peace prospects.