The recent three-day Loya Jirga, a grand assembly in Afghanistan, has made headlines as it discusses freeing about 400 Taliban fighters convicted of heinous crimes. As an essential pillar of the Afghan society, the meeting and its outcomes are expected to make significant impacts on the country’s future.
Understanding the Loya Jirga
Regarded as a crucial aspect of Afghan culture and governance, the Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) is a mass gathering of representatives from various ethnic, religious, and tribal communities. Often convened during times of national crises or to solve national problems, this centuries-old consultative body is considered the Afghan people’s highest expression. Despite not being an official decision-maker and its decisions not legally binding, the president and parliament must respect the rulings it makes.
Why Call for a Loya Jirga Now?
The current Loya Jirga was instigated following the Afghanistan President’s refusal to release Taliban prisoners. This stand-off jeopardized the forthcoming intra-Afghan talks tentatively slated for 10th August 2020. The Taliban responded by threatening escalated violence should the prisoners remain captive. The U.S., in turn, anticipates these talks between the Afghan government and Taliban will serve as conduits to reduce violence, instigate direct discussions, and ultimately lead to peace agreements and an end to the war.
The Underlying Context
The agreement on prisoner exchanges resulted from negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban as well as between the U.S. and the Afghan government earlier in February 2020. Multiple delays occurred, causing the initial intra-Afghan discussions scheduled for March to be postponed. Critics speculate that Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani procrastinated on peace talks with the Taliban to maintain power, given rumors that these negotiations could result in a neutral interim government that may cost Ghani his presidency. In the midst of these delays, the U.S. reduced its military presence to approximately 8000 troops and urged the release of Taliban prisoners while also asking the Taliban to free Afghan soldiers and civilians in their custody. The U.S. government has been keen to accelerate the reconciliation process between the Taliban and Afghanistan, potentially due to the November 2020 Presidential elections.
India’s Role and Interests
India has a significant stake in Afghanistan’s stability and has heavily invested in its development. Key projects include the Afghan Parliament, the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, and the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam (Salma Dam). India supports the current Afghan government’s continued reign, considering them as strategic assets against Pakistan. An expanded political and military role for the Taliban would concern India, as the Taliban is commonly believed to be sponsored by Pakistan. Afghanistan’s status as a gateway to Central Asia implies that a withdrawal of U.S. troops could foster conditions for anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed to thrive.
The Road Forward
India should back any genuine peace initiatives in Afghanistan. However, the current peace attempts are largely seen as unilateral and pushed by the U.S. and Pakistan. Hence, India should abstain from recognizing or publicly engaging the Taliban until the group acknowledges the Afghan government.
