Normal Monsoon Forecast for India in 2025

The 2025 monsoon season in India is anticipated to be normal, according to the APEC Climate Centre in South Korea. Recent assessments indicate no rainfall deficiencies across the country. This outlook is particularly favourable for North-East India, which is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The forecast is based on neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific, suggesting a stable atmospheric environment.

Monsoon Overview

The Southwest monsoon in India spans from June to September. It is crucial for agriculture and water resources. The APEC Climate Centre has indicated that the monsoon will likely commence normally, with no regions facing deficient rainfall during this period.

Pre-Monsoon Forecast

The pre-monsoon months of March to May are projected to experience above-normal temperatures in most regions. However, the South Peninsula may remain cooler. Rainfall is expected to be above normal along the Arabian Sea coast and in parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Monthly Rainfall Predictions

– March – Normal rainfall expected, with slight deviations in some regions. – April – Mostly normal rainfall, with slight increases in Kerala and decreases in parts of North-West India. – May – Anticipated above-normal rainfall across most regions, particularly benefiting North-East India.

June to August Outlook

– June – The monsoon is expected to start normally along the Kerala coast, with moderate temperatures. – July – Projected to be the rainiest month, with normal rainfall across the country. – August – Expected to follow suit with normal rain, except in specific regions where above-normal precipitation is anticipated.

Regional Variations

While the overall outlook is positive, some areas may experience variations. The South Peninsula and the Gujarat-West Rajasthan belt may see normal rainfall levels. The rest of the country is set to benefit from the monsoon, with no projected deficits.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of monsoon variability on Indian agriculture.
2. Estimate the significance of the South-West monsoon for India’s water resources and food security.
3. What is the role of the equatorial Pacific in influencing monsoon patterns? Explain with suitable examples.
4. Point out the regional differences in rainfall patterns during the monsoon and their implications for local economies.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of monsoon variability on Indian agriculture.

1. Monsoon variability directly affects crop yields; timely rains boost production, while delays or deficits lead to droughts.
2. Different crops have varying water requirements, making some regions more vulnerable to monsoon fluctuations.
3. Farmers often depend on traditional knowledge and forecasts, which can be unreliable during erratic monsoons.
4. Inconsistent rainfall can lead to increased pest and disease outbreaks, affecting crop health and productivity.
5. Government interventions, such as crop insurance and irrigation projects, are crucial to mitigate risks associated with monsoon variability.

2. Estimate the significance of the South-West monsoon for India’s water resources and food security.

1. The South-West monsoon accounts for approximately 70% of India’s annual rainfall, essential for replenishing water bodies.
2. It is critical for agriculture, as the majority of the nation’s farming relies on rain-fed irrigation systems.
3. Monsoon rains support drinking water supply and sanitation, directly impacting public health.
4. Food security is heavily dependent on monsoon performance, influencing crop production and prices.
5. Inadequate monsoon can lead to food shortages, increased imports, and economic instability.

3. What is the role of the equatorial Pacific in influencing monsoon patterns? Explain with suitable examples.

1. The equatorial Pacific influences monsoon patterns through phenomena like El Niño and La Niña, affecting global weather systems.
2. El Niño typically results in weaker monsoon conditions, leading to droughts in India, as seen in 2009 and 2014.
3. Conversely, La Niña is associated with stronger monsoon seasons, often improving rainfall, as experienced in 2017.
4. Neutral conditions in the Pacific indicate a more stable and predictable monsoon, as projected for 2025.
5. These patterns are crucial for meteorological forecasting and agricultural planning in India.

4. Point out the regional differences in rainfall patterns during the monsoon and their implications for local economies.

1. North-East India generally receives above-normal rainfall, benefiting agriculture and hydropower generation.
2. The South Peninsula often experiences variable rainfall, impacting crop choices and water resource management.
3. Gujarat and West Rajasthan may face normal rainfall but are prone to drought, affecting livestock and agriculture.
4. Regions like Punjab and Haryana benefit from consistent monsoon rains, supporting their status as food bowl states.
5. Economic activities, such as fishing and tourism, can also be influenced by regional rainfall patterns and their reliability.