In recent discussions, politicians have raised concerns regarding the country’s demographic trends, particularly in relation to an ageing population and declining fertility rates. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has proposed new legislation to encourage larger families, citing fears of a shrinking younger population. These statements reflect an important shift from previous decades when rapid population growth was the primary concern.
About Demographic Trends
India’s demographic landscape is changing rapidly. With the advent of the 21st century, the country has seen a notable decline in fertility rates, particularly in Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which have transitioned to lower fertility levels much earlier than their Northern counterparts. For instance, Andhra Pradesh achieved the Replacement Level of Fertility in 2004, while states like Uttar Pradesh are projected to reach it only in 2024. This disparity raises questions about the future economic viability of these regions and their representation in governance. Interestingly, the United Nations projects that by 2036, the population of older adults (60+) in India will double, rising from 10 crore to 23 crore. This demographic shift poses challenges for social services and economic productivity, as a larger proportion of the population will be dependent on a shrinking workforce.
Fertility Rates and Economic Implications
The fertility rate in India has seen an important decline over the past few decades. The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from around 5.2 in the 1970s to approximately 2.2 in 2021. However, the impact of this decline is uneven across the country. Southern states, having achieved lower TFRs sooner, are now grappling with the implications of an ageing population, which can strain public resources and social services. Research indicates that countries with lower fertility rates often experience economic challenges, as fewer workers contribute to economic productivity. This situation is particularly pressing in states like Kerala, where the proportion of the population aged 60 and above is expected to increase . The dependency ratio, which measures the proportion of non-working individuals to the working-age population, is a critical factor in determining economic sustainability.
Migration as a Solution
In response to the challenges posed by demographic shifts, internal migration may serve as a viable solution. As younger populations in Southern states decline, migration from Northern states, where fertility rates remain higher, could help balance the demographic scales. This phenomenon is already occurring, with many individuals from less developed states seeking opportunities in more prosperous regions. Historical patterns reveal that migration has played important role in shaping economic landscapes. The United States, for instance, has thrived economically partly due to the influx of immigrants, who contribute to both labour supply and economic output. Similarly could benefit from a well-managed internal migration strategy, ensuring that younger, working-age individuals move to areas where their contributions are most needed.
Policy Responses and Challenges
The proposed policies to incentivise larger families, such as those suggested by Naidu, raise questions about their effectiveness. Evidence from countries like Japan and China suggests that financial incentives alone do not increase fertility rates. Instead, comprehensive family support systems, including childcare, parental leave, and gender equality initiatives, have proven more effective in encouraging higher birth rates. Moreover, the historical context of population control in India reveals a complex relationship with fertility. During the 1970s, aggressive family planning policies aimed at curbing population growth led to widespread sterilisation campaigns. Today, the focus has shifted towards encouraging larger families, denoting the evolving nature of demographic policy in response to changing societal needs.
Future Directions
To navigate the challenges posed by an ageing population and declining fertility rates must prioritise enhancing the productivity of its labour force. This includes investing in education, skills training, and job creation to ensure that the economic benefits of the demographic dividend are fully realised. Additionally, encourageing an environment that supports migration can help alleviate the pressures of demographic imbalances. By embracing the potential of a diverse workforce can harness the strengths of its various regions, ensuring sustainable economic growth and social stability.
