The recently published Production Gap report 2023 has elicited significant attention. The report was a collaborative effort between the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). This report undertook an assessment of governments’ plans and projected production of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas in comparison to global levels that conform to the temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement.
Understanding the Production Gap
The production gap constitutes the variance between governments’ intended fossil fuel production and the universal production levels that align with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
Key Findings of the Production Gap Report
A glaring revelation from the report was the projected increase in fossil fuels production. Governments worldwide are intending to produce double the amount of fossil fuel in 2030 than what is consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. This forecast surpasses the 2°C target by 69%, which underscores the urgent requirement for more radical climate action measures. Current government plans and projections would lead to a surge in global coal production until 2030, while global oil and gas production seems likely to continue till at least 2050.
Impact on Major Fossil Fuel Producers
Despite most major fossil fuel-producing countries pledging to attain net-zero emissions and initiating measures to cut down emissions from fossil fuel production, none have committed to reduce their production of coal, oil, and gas sufficiently to limit warming to 1.5°C.
India’s Role and Stance
India’s updated NDC aims to reduce emission intensity by 45% compared to 2005 levels by 2030, with a vision of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. The government is also focused on maintaining energy security, access, and employment. To attain self-reliance, the government plans to expand coal production for state income and job opportunities and scale up domestic oil and gas exploration to meet the anticipated demand.
India’s Continued Investment in Fossil Fuels
Whilst investing in green energy, India continues to commit to fossil fuels, predominantly coal. ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), a subsidiary of India’s national oil company, owns stakes in 33 oil and gas projects across 15 countries.
Recommendations from the Report
The report advocates for more transparency in government plans, projections, and support for fossil fuel production regarding how they align with national and international climate goals. It suggests that there is an exigent need for governments to adopt near- and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuel production. With a focus on equity during transition away from fossil fuels, the report also prompts that countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production by 2040, and a combined reduction in oil and gas production by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum.
