Rising Temperatures in India Amid La Niña Phenomenon

The year 2025 has witnessed unusually high temperatures across India. This trend is occurring even as the La Niña phenomenon is in effect. La Niña typically brings cooler conditions. However, the ongoing heat wave suggests deviation from expected climatic patterns. January 2025 recorded the warmest temperatures globally, with anomalies reaching 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.

Temperature Anomalies in January 2025

January 2025 was marked by extreme temperature anomalies. The average maximum temperature was 25.53°C, while the average minimum was 12.51°C. These figures surpassed the normal values of 24.61°C and 11.46°C respectively. The mean temperature anomaly for January was the second highest since 1901.

Regional Temperature Increases

Regions in northwest and central India reported daytime temperatures 3-4°C above normal. In southern India, temperatures reached 30-35°C. Kalaburagi recorded a peak of 36.6°C. Nighttime temperatures also rose by 2-4°C across several states, indicating a shift towards warmer climatic conditions.

Influence of Air Masses

A warm air mass over Eurasia and China is contributing to the temperature rise. This air mass is partially infiltrating India. Weak winds have failed to alleviate the heat. Experts suggest that the current weather patterns may not align with traditional La Niña effects.

Long-term Temperature Trends

The trend of rising temperatures has been evident for over a year. In 2024, 11 out of 12 months experienced higher-than-normal night temperatures. The average minimum temperature anomalies in January 2025 were notably high compared to previous years.

Impact of Global Warming

The ongoing rise in temperatures indicates the overshadowing effects of global warming. Emissions from fossil fuels are factor. The influence of natural cycles, such as El Niño and La Niña, appears diminished. Experts argue that this trend may not be directly linked to La Niña.

Research Findings

A study published in October 2023 brought into light a trend of increasing temperatures in northern India. The research indicated a rise of 0.1°C-0.3°C per decade from 1980 to 2020. The temperature anomalies from January 2024 to January 2025 show a stark increase, further supporting the findings of rising temperatures.

Climate Cycles and Misinterpretations

Some climatologists caution against hastily labelling current conditions as La Niña. Variations in sea temperatures challenge the conventional understanding of the phenomenon. The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal exhibit contrasting temperature profiles, complicating the climate narrative.

Future Implications

The implications of these rising temperatures extend beyond immediate weather patterns. They may affect agriculture, water supply, and health. About these trends is crucial for future climate resilience strategies.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Discuss the implications of climate change on agricultural productivity in India.
2. Critically examine the role of greenhouse gas emissions in global temperature anomalies.
3. Explain the phenomenon of La Niña and its expected impacts on regional climates.
4. With suitable examples, discuss the significance of temperature anomalies in understanding climate change trends.

Answer Hints:

1. Discuss the implications of climate change on agricultural productivity in India.

1. Climate change leads to unpredictable weather patterns, affecting crop yield and farming schedules.
2. Increased temperatures can cause heat stress in crops, reducing productivity.
3. Changes in precipitation patterns can lead to droughts or floods, impacting irrigation and soil health.
4. Pests and diseases may proliferate in warmer climates, further threatening agricultural output.
5. Farmers may need to adapt to new crop varieties and practices, increasing costs and requiring education and resources.

2. Critically examine the role of greenhouse gas emissions in global temperature anomalies.

1. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperatures.
2. Human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, have increased greenhouse gas concentrations since the Industrial Revolution.
3. These emissions contribute to extreme weather events and temperature anomalies across the globe.
4. Scientific consensus links rising emissions to observed climate changes, impacting ecosystems and human societies.
5. Mitigation strategies, such as renewable energy adoption, are essential to curb emissions and stabilize temperatures.

3. Explain the phenomenon of La Niña and its expected impacts on regional climates.

1. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. It often leads to increased rainfall in some regions (e.g., Southeast Asia) and droughts in others (e.g., the southwestern U.S.).
3. La Niña typically brings cooler winters to India, but its effects can be overshadowed by other climate factors.
4. Interactions with global warming may alter traditional patterns, leading to unexpected weather outcomes.
5. Monitoring La Niña is crucial for agricultural planning and disaster preparedness in affected regions.

4. With suitable examples, discuss the significance of temperature anomalies in understanding climate change trends.

1. Temperature anomalies indicate deviations from historical averages, denoting climate change effects.
2. For instance, January 2025’s temperature anomaly of 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels reflects ongoing global warming.
3. Regions experiencing consistent anomalies can indicate areas at risk for extreme weather events.
4. Temperature anomalies help scientists assess the impact of climate policies and natural phenomena like El Niño and La Niña.
5. About these anomalies is essential for developing adaptive strategies for communities and ecosystems facing climate change.