Recent news highlights a new peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by Russia. The two countries have been engaged in a military conflict over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, located in the South Caucasus.
Understanding the Nagorno-Karabakh Region
Nagorno-Karabakh region spreads across western Asia and Eastern Europe. Historically, it has been part of Azerbaijan territory since the Soviet era. Although internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, most of the region is under the control of Armenian separatists who have proclaimed it as “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast”. The Armenian government, while not recognising its independence, lends political and military support to the region.
Conflict and Attempts at Ceasefire
The conflict dates back to the late 1980s when the Soviet Union started to dissolve. The regional parliament of Armenia, during that period, voted for the transfer of the region to Armenia. However, the Soviet authorities rejected the request, resulting in enduring clashes and violence that lasted until 1994. Russia brokered a ceasefire, leading to the control of the region by ethnic Armenians. The year 2016 witnessed a four-day war followed by Russia-mediated peace again.
Efforts for a peaceful resolution were also made by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group. Despite this, a Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement in October 2020 proved unsuccessful.
Underlying reason for the Conflict
The conflict finds its roots in decades-old ethnic tensions. Debates persist with Azeris claiming historical control over the disputed region while the Armenians argue that Karabakh was part of the Armenian kingdom. The current demographics of the region reveal a majority Armenian Christian population, despite international recognition of the area as part of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.
The New Peace Agreement
Under the new peace deal, both sides agree to maintain their current positions in the areas they hold. This results in a considerable advantage for Azerbaijan, as it regained about 15-20% of territory lost during recent conflicts. All military operations are suspended and Russian peacekeepers will be deployed for five years along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor that connects the Karabakh capital, Stepanakert, to Armenia.
Provisions under the New Deal
Textual details of the agreement specify the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to the region and adjacent territories. The two nations have also agreed to exchange prisoners of war and bodies. A new corridor linking Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan will be established under Russian control.
Responses to the New Deal
Armenian citizens have expressed their dissent towards the deal through protests. On the other hand, Azerbaijan perceives the deal as a “historic importance” and has exhibited pleasure over its terms.
Russia’s Role in the Dispute
Historically, Russia has maintained a balanced stance on the issue, nurturing good relations with both countries. It provides arms to both nations and also has a military base in Armenia. Additionally, both Armenia and Russia are part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation which provisionally states Russia’s military support if Armenia is attacked. However, the Treaty does not include the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia also maintains strong ties with Azerbaijan, who is receiving open support from Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).