This article explores a research study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, which provides insight into the average duration from the onset of Coronavirus symptoms to death, and hospital discharge. The study bases its findings on data from 24 deaths in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China. It delves into different aspects related to the virus such as the Infection Fatality Rate, the role of age in severity of the virus, and implications of the study.
The Infection Fatality Rate
According to the study, the overall Infection Fatality Rate for China, where the virus first originated, was approximately 0.66%. This figure takes into account the potential number of asymptomatic individuals ā those who carry the virus without showing symptoms. Such cases are usually not included in China’s official coronavirus figures. However, recent data has now revealed more than 43,000 instances of asymptomatic infection found through contact tracing in China. Contact tracing involves identifying, assessing, and managing individuals exposed to the disease to prevent further transmission. Consequently, China has resolved to increase screening procedures for asymptomatic carriers and their contacts.
Infection Fatality Rate Vs Crude Fatality Ratio
Researchers at Imperial College, London, had earlier approximated the crude fatality ratio to be around 3.67%, mirroring the estimates given by the World Health Organization (WHO). The crude fatality ratio compares the total number of cases with the total number of deaths, without factoring in the severity of the infection.
How Age Impacts the Severity of Coronavirus
The severity of coronavirus is influenced by the age of the patient. According to the study, the overall case fatality ratio could be around 1.38%. However, in patients over 60 years of age, the figure rises to 6.4% and further increases to 13.4% in those over 80 years. Conversely, the ratio drops to a mere 0.32% in individuals below 60 years. These statistics are based on all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China, amounting to 70,117 cases.
Study Implications
The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 is substantially higher than that of recent influenza pandemics like the H1N1 influenza in 2009. Given the rapid global spread of COVID-19 so far, it poses a massive worldwide health threat in the coming weeks and months. As of April 1st, there were approximately 8.53 lakh cases of COVID-19 globally, resulting in around 41,887 deaths. Considering the significant proportion of infected individuals requiring hospitalisation, combined with estimated infection attack rates of between 50-80%, even the most advanced healthcare systems are expected to face overwhelming strain. This serves to underscore the study’s importance in aiding countries worldwide to prepare as effectively as possible for the ongoing global pandemic.
