Syrian Rebels Launch Major Offensive in Aleppo

The Syrian civil war has seen resurgence with a surprise offensive launched by Syrian rebel forces towards Aleppo. This attack, which began on November 29, 2023, marks the first time opposition forces have seized territory in Aleppo since 2016. The conflict had been relatively dormant since a ceasefire was established in 2020, making this recent escalation particularly notable.

Background of the Syrian Civil War

The Syrian civil war erupted in 2011 amidst the Arab Spring. Protests against President Bashar al-Assad‘s regime were met with violent repression. Over the years, the war has fragmented the country into various zones controlled by different factions. Assad’s government, backed by Russia and Iran, retains control over territories. Meanwhile, Kurdish forces and extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham control other regions.

Recent Developments

The recent offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has shifted the dynamics of the conflict. Rebels advanced from Idlib into Aleppo, leading to a temporary withdrawal of Syrian military forces. The Syrian government, in response, has launched airstrikes to reclaim lost territory. This marks a critical moment as it marks the vulnerabilities of Assad’s regime amid ongoing military commitments elsewhere.

International Implications

The offensive has broader implications for international relations in the region. Turkey’s complex relationship with HTS complicates the situation. While Turkey provides support to the group, it also manages the borders and trade routes into Idlib. Russia’s involvement in the conflict, particularly its focus on Ukraine, has also weakened its immediate support for Assad, presenting an opportunity for rebel forces.

Potential Outcomes

The current offensive could lead to a shift in power dynamics in Syria. If rebels manage to maintain control over Aleppo, it may embolden further insurgent activities across the region. However, Assad’s regime, with its strong military backing, is likely to respond aggressively to reclaim lost territories. The conflict remains deeply intertwined with the ongoing Israel-Palestine tensions, further complicating peace efforts.

Significance of the Offensive

This offensive is as it puts stress on the fragility of the ceasefire established in 2020. It reveals the ongoing instability in Syria and the potential for renewed conflict. The involvement of multiple regional actors adds layers of complexity to the situation, making a peaceful resolution increasingly challenging.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the role of external powers in the Syrian civil war and their impact on the conflict’s dynamics.
2. Explain the significance of the Arab Spring in shaping modern Middle Eastern politics, particularly in Syria.
3. What are the implications of the recent offensive by Syrian rebels for the stability of the Assad regime? Discuss.
4. Comment on the relationship between Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. How does this relationship affect the conflict in Syria?

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the role of external powers in the Syrian civil war and their impact on the conflict’s dynamics.

1. Russia and Iran support Assad’s regime militarily and politically, stabilizing his control over key areas.
2. The US has backed various rebel groups, complicating the conflict and prolonging the war.
3. Turkey’s involvement has fluctuated, supporting rebels while managing its own border security and Kurdish threats.
4. Regional dynamics, including Israel’s actions against Hezbollah, influence the conflict’s trajectory and external power strategies.
5. International responses have often been driven by strategic interests, impacting ceasefire negotiations and humanitarian efforts.

2. Explain the significance of the Arab Spring in shaping modern Middle Eastern politics, particularly in Syria.

1. The Arab Spring sparked widespread protests against authoritarian regimes, including Assad’s in Syria.
2. It led to the emergence of various political factions, including Islamist and secular groups, fracturing national unity.
3. The conflict created a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced, affecting regional stability and international relations.
4. Social media played important role in mobilizing protests and spreading pro-democracy sentiments across the region.
5. The aftermath has seen a rise in extremism and proxy wars, complicating the political landscape in Syria and beyond.

3. What are the implications of the recent offensive by Syrian rebels for the stability of the Assad regime? Discuss.

1. The offensive indicates vulnerabilities in Assad’s control, suggesting potential shifts in power dynamics.
2. A successful rebel hold on Aleppo could inspire further insurgent activities and weaken regime authority.
3. Ongoing military commitments by Assad’s allies, such as Russia and Iran, may limit their ability to support him effectively.
4. The offensive may provoke a harsh military response from Assad, leading to escalated violence and instability.
5. International reactions could further complicate the regime’s stability, depending on how external powers respond to the offensive.

4. Comment on the relationship between Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. How does this relationship affect the conflict in Syria?

1. Turkey has a complex relationship with HTS, balancing support for rebels while managing its own security concerns.
2. HTS relies on Turkey for protection against Assad’s forces, creating a strategic alliance despite HTS’s extremist roots.
3. Turkey’s control over borders into Idlib allows it to influence HTS’s actions and trade, affecting regional dynamics.
4. The relationship complicates Turkey’s position in NATO and its dealings with Russia, especially regarding Syrian sovereignty.
5. HTS’s actions can impact Turkish domestic politics, especially concerning the refugee crisis and security threats from Kurdish groups.