Taliban’s Resurgence and Geopolitical Impact in Afghanistan

The Pashtun Taliban has re-emerged as a dominant force in Afghanistan. From their roots as Mujahideen fighters against the Soviet invasion in 1979, they first seized Kabul in 1996. Ousted by the US and Northern Alliance in 2001, they returned in 2021, forcing a chaotic American exit. This cycle echoes the US withdrawal from Saigon in 1973. The Taliban’s return reshapes the geopolitics of South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia, with regional and global implications.

Historical Evolution of the Taliban

The Taliban originated from Mujahideen groups resisting Soviet forces. They controlled Afghanistan from 1996 until 2001. Their rule was marked by strict Islamic law and harbouring terrorists like Osama Bin Laden. After 2001, they faded but regrouped and retook Kabul in 2021. Their rise parallels historical non-state actors like the British East India Company, using military force to alter regional power structures.

International Recognition and Relations

Initially recognised by Pakistan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, the Taliban lost diplomatic ties with the latter two after refusing to surrender Bin Laden. Currently, only Russia fully recognises the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate. Several Central Asian countries maintain limited diplomatic contacts. India evacuated its missions twice due to security concerns but continues engagement through a cautious two-track policy of dialogue and criticism of governance.

India’s Strategic Interests and Challenges

India views Afghanistan’s Herat region and the Hindukush mountains as vital to its north-western frontier. It invested over $3 billion in infrastructure and social projects. Despite popularity among Afghans, Pakistan’s influence limits India’s strategic reach. India supports resistance groups opposing the Taliban and maintains efforts to keep trade routes open via Iran’s Chabahar port, circumventing Pakistan.

Regional Dynamics and Pakistan’s Role

Pakistan remains a key player, hosting millions of Afghan refugees and influencing Taliban factions. However, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have soured over border disputes, especially the Durand Line. Pakistan blames India for supporting insurgent groups attacking its military. Border clashes have intensified, complicating peace talks in Turkey. Pakistan’s strategic depth ambitions face challenges from Taliban autonomy.

Resistance Movements within Afghanistan

Opposition to the Taliban comes mainly from the National Resistance Front, representing Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks. The National Mobilisation Front, formed by former Afghan soldiers, targets both Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. These groups may receive covert support from Pakistan and the US, indicating a complex proxy conflict. Coordination between these fronts could influence Afghanistan’s future stability.

Global Powers and Afghanistan’s Geostrategic Importance

China and Russia are deeply involved in Afghanistan’s future. Russia hosts diplomatic talks and calls the Taliban allies in counter-terrorism. China conducts trilateral dialogues with Afghanistan and Pakistan to assert influence in Central Asia. The US retains interest in Afghanistan’s rare earth resources and military bases. This interplay of powers reflects Afghanistan’s role as a strategic land bridge.

Trade Routes and Economic Corridors

The Durand Line dispute hampers direct trade between India and Afghanistan via Pakistan. India’s alternative is the Chabahar port in Iran, developed jointly with Afghanistan. US sanctions on Iran complicate this route, especially after the 2025 revocation of waivers by the Trump administration. These economic corridors are crucial for regional connectivity and influence.

Human Rights and Governance Issues

The Taliban’s regime enforces strict Shariah law, with severe gender restrictions. Their leadership faces international sanctions and accusations of crimes against humanity. Calls for an inclusive government and better governance remain unheeded. This situation fuels internal resistance and international concern over Afghanistan’s human rights record.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Point out the strategic importance of Afghanistan in the geopolitics of South Asia and Central Asia with suitable examples.
2. Underline the challenges faced by India in maintaining influence in Afghanistan post-2021 Taliban takeover and critically analyse India’s two-track policy.
3. Critically analyse the impact of non-state actors like the Taliban and the British East India Company on regional geopolitics and state formation.
4. Estimate the role of economic corridors such as the Chabahar port in enhancing regional connectivity and countering geopolitical rivalries in South Asia.

Answer Hints:

1. Point out the strategic importance of Afghanistan in the geopolitics of South Asia and Central Asia with suitable examples.

1. Afghanistan is a land bridge connecting South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia, crucial for trade and military strategy.
2. Control over Afghanistan influences regional power dynamics among India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and the US.
3. The country’s terrain (Hindukush mountains) forms a natural north-western frontier for India.
4. Taliban’s control affects cross-border insurgencies and refugee flows impacting Pakistan and Iran.
5. Afghanistan’s rare earth resources and military bases (e.g., Bagram) attract global powers’ interest.
6. Historical parallels – British East India Company and Taliban using military force to alter regional geopolitics.

2. Underline the challenges faced by India in maintaining influence in Afghanistan post-2021 Taliban takeover and critically analyse India’s two-track policy.

1. Security concerns forced India to evacuate its embassy and consulates twice after Taliban’s return.
2. Pakistan’s strategic depth policy limits India’s access, controlling trade routes and supporting proxies.
3. India’s $3 billion investment in infrastructure and social projects faces influence constraints due to Pakistan’s dominance.
4. India’s two-track policy – engaging Taliban regime pragmatically while advocating for good governance and inclusivity.
5. Challenges include Taliban’s human rights violations and lack of international recognition limiting India’s diplomatic leverage.
6. India balances relations amid Taliban’s refusal to accept Durand Line and ongoing border clashes involving Pakistan and Taliban factions.

3. Critically analyse the impact of non-state actors like the Taliban and the British East India Company on regional geopolitics and state formation.

1. Both used military force to seize and alter control over Afghanistan and surrounding regions.
2. British East India Company established colonial control, shaping South Asia’s political boundaries.
3. Taliban imposed strict Islamic governance, influencing regional security and international counter-terrorism policies.
4. Non-state actors challenge traditional state sovereignty and complicate diplomatic recognition (e.g., Taliban’s limited recognition).
5. They affect regional alliances, proxy conflicts, and geopolitical rivalries among major powers.
6. Taliban’s resurgence shows cyclical power shifts through insurgency rather than conventional state-building.

4. Estimate the role of economic corridors such as the Chabahar port in enhancing regional connectivity and countering geopolitical rivalries in South Asia.

1. Chabahar port provides India-Afghanistan trade access bypassing Pakistan, crucial due to Durand Line dispute.
2. Trilateral agreement (India, Iran, Afghanistan) aims to boost regional economic integration and connectivity.
3. US sanctions on Iran complicate operations but waivers (now revoked) had supported corridor viability.
4. Chabahar counters China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), balancing China-Pakistan influence in the region.
5. Economic corridors enhance India’s strategic depth and regional influence despite geopolitical challenges.
6. Such projects promote stability by encouraging economic interdependence among South and Central Asian states.