The Rise and Fall of India’s Cotton Industry

India’s cotton industry has experienced fluctuations over the past two decades. Once a global leader, India now faces challenges that threaten its cotton production and export capabilities. This shift is attributed to a combination of technological advancements and regulatory hurdles.

Historical Context of Cotton Production

India has a rich history in cotton cultivation. In the early 2000s, the country saw a surge in production. By 2013-14, cotton production had nearly tripled, reaching 39.8 million bales. India became the world’s top producer and a leading exporter. This growth was facilitated by advancements in hybrid cotton varieties and the introduction of genetically modified (GM) cotton.

Technological Innovations in Cotton

Key figures in cotton breeding contributed to India’s success. C T Patel developed the first commercial hybrid, H-4, in 1970. B H Katarki followed with Varalaxmi, an inter-specific hybrid, in 1972. The introduction of GM Bt cotton in 2002 revolutionised production. It reduced pest damage and increased yields , with national average lint yields peaking at 566 kg per hectare by 2013-14.

Decline in Production and Exports

After reaching its peak, India’s cotton production began to decline. By 2024-25, projections indicated a drop to 29.5 million bales. Imports were expected to surpass exports, signalling a shift back to being a net importer. Factors contributing to this decline include regulatory restrictions on GM crops and pest infestations.

Regulatory Challenges

The regulatory environment surrounding GM crops has become increasingly restrictive. Following public consultations and fears surrounding GM technology, the Government of India imposed a moratorium on GM Bt brinjal in 2010. This set a precedent for limiting technological advancements in agriculture. The approval process for new GM crops has stalled, with no new technologies approved since Bollgard-II in 2006.

Impact on Farmers and the Economy

The decline in cotton production has had adverse effects on Indian farmers. Many have faced economic hardships due to decreased yields and rising competition from imported cotton. The increase in cotton imports has also led to a surge in value, denoting the challenges faced by domestic producers.

Global Context and Future Prospects

India’s position in the global cotton market has shifted. With the rise of competitors like the US and Brazil, India risks losing its status as a leading exporter. The regulatory environment may need to adapt to allow for technological advancements that could benefit farmers and restore India’s cotton industry.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the impact of technological innovations on India’s cotton production between 2000 and 2014.
2. Examine the role of regulatory policies in shaping the future of genetically modified crops in India.
3. Analyse the socio-economic consequences of India becoming a net importer of cotton.
4. Point out the global implications of India’s decline in cotton exports for both domestic farmers and international markets.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the impact of technological innovations on India’s cotton production between 2000 and 2014.

1. Introduction of hybrid cotton varieties like H-4 and Varalaxmi increased yields.
2. GM Bt cotton, introduced in 2002, reduced pest damage and improved productivity.
3. Average lint yields rose from 127 kg/ha in 1970-71 to a peak of 566 kg/ha by 2013-14.
4. Technological advancements led to India becoming the world’s top cotton producer in 2015-16.
5. However, the reliance on technology also created vulnerabilities, brought into light by subsequent declines in production.

2. Examine the role of regulatory policies in shaping the future of genetically modified crops in India.

1. The moratorium on GM Bt brinjal in 2010 set a precedent for regulatory restrictions on GM crops.
2. Public consultations often favored environmental concerns over scientific validation, impacting approvals.
3. No new GM technologies have been approved since Bollgard-II in 2006, stalling innovation.
4. Regulatory hurdles have prevented farmers from accessing potentially beneficial GM crops.
5. Current policies may need revision to balance safety with agricultural advancement for future sustainability.

3. Analyse the socio-economic consequences of India becoming a net importer of cotton.

1. Farmers face economic hardships due to decreased domestic production and rising imports.
2. Increased competition from imported cotton can lead to lower prices for local farmers.
3. Economic dependency on foreign cotton may threaten local livelihoods and agricultural sustainability.
4. Import surges have led to increase in cotton import value, affecting the trade balance.
5. Social unrest may arise among farmers due to loss of income and job security in the cotton sector.

4. Point out the global implications of India’s decline in cotton exports for both domestic farmers and international markets.

1. India’s reduced cotton exports benefit competitors like the US and Brazil, altering global market dynamics.
2. Domestic farmers may struggle with lower prices and reduced demand for locally produced cotton.
3. Global supply chains may shift, increasing reliance on foreign cotton and impacting prices worldwide.
4. India’s declining status as an exporter could affect its bargaining power in international trade agreements.
5. Long-term implications may include increased foreign investment in cotton production outside India.