The rules-based international order that emerged after World War II is visibly fraying. Built around institutions such as the United Nations and the Bretton Woods system, and anchored by US leadership, it provided relative stability for decades despite being tilted towards Western interests. Today, however, power shifts, strategic distrust, and a retreat from multilateralism are hollowing out that framework—raising a central question for global politics: who will shape what comes next?
From post-war consensus to present-day strain
The post-1945 order reflected both idealism and self-interest. While it institutionalised collective security, open trade, and predictable economic rules, it also entrenched Western primacy. For nearly eight decades, that bargain held. But the strain is now unmistakable. At the recent World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, US President Donald Trump framed Western prosperity less as a product of shared rules and more as the outcome of a distinct cultural inheritance that must be defended. The shift in language—from institutions to identity—signals how far the old consensus has eroded.
Why the United States is pulling away
As China rises and Russia grows more assertive, Washington has become sceptical of the very institutions it once championed. Multilateral rules are increasingly viewed as constraints on American freedom of action, while allies are seen as beneficiaries of US security guarantees without adequate burden-sharing. The response has been disruption rather than reform—tariffs, unilateralism, and transactional diplomacy—without a clearly articulated vision for a successor order capable of managing a multipolar world.
A leadership vacuum among major and middle powers
The erosion of the old order has not yet produced a compelling alternative. Emerging powers such as India and China have largely responded tactically, focusing on hedging and flexibility rather than advancing a shared blueprint for global governance. Traditional middle powers—Japan, Germany, Australia, and Canada—have mostly reacted to events rather than shaped them. Even legacy powers like the United Kingdom and France remain constrained by alliance dependencies and domestic pressures.
Transactional geopolitics and the risk of fragmentation
In parts of West Asia, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are pursuing more autonomous foreign policies, signalling a broader trend: diplomacy driven by narrow interests and episodic deals rather than shared norms. This drift recalls the realist logic described by Thucydides—and echoed in the Mahabharata’s warning that without a higher order, the strong devour the weak. A world governed solely by power risks becoming unstable even for those who think they benefit from it.
Middle powers and the search for a coalition
This concern was articulated by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos, when he warned that unrestrained power politics ultimately erode the gains of transactionalism itself. His intervention reflects a growing sentiment among middle powers: the next phase of global order will not be hegemonic but coalitional. Stability, openness, and predictability now depend on a group of states capable of bridging ideological divides and restoring legitimacy to international cooperation.
Why India’s role is increasingly pivotal
India is uniquely placed in this emerging landscape. No longer merely a balancing power, it has cultivated relationships across Europe, the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while positioning itself as a voice of the Global South. Platforms such as BRICS, currently chaired by India, offer an opportunity—if used judiciously—to push for reform rather than rupture of global governance. More broadly, India could convene an initial core group of like-minded middle powers, and some open-minded great powers, to articulate principles for a more inclusive and functional order.
What to note for Prelims?
- Post-World War II institutions: United Nations system, Bretton Woods institutions.
- Concept of rules-based international order and its current erosion.
- Role of BRICS and middle powers in global governance reform.
- Shifts in US foreign policy from multilateralism to transactionalism.
What to note for Mains?
- Critically examine the causes behind the weakening of the rules-based international order.
- Discuss the role of middle powers in shaping a multipolar world.
- Analyse India’s potential leadership role in reforming global governance institutions.
- Evaluate the risks of a fragmented, power-driven international system.
