Recently, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released the global annual to decadal climate update report. This document contains important predictions for temperature trends in various regions of the globe for the year 2022 and the subsequent four years. The report reveals that one of these regions with predicted below normal temperatures is India.
About the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization boasting a membership of 193 Member States and Territories, including India. Originating from the International Meteorological Organization established at the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress, the WMO was formed on March 23, 1950, earning the status of a UN’s specialized agency for meteorology, operational hydrology, and related geophysical sciences. The WMO headquarters are located in Geneva, Switzerland.
Main Findings of the Report
The report highlights the increasing threat of global warming. It predicts a 50% chance of the annual average global temperature reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level temporarily in one of the next five years. It also suggests a 93% likelihood of one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record, surpassing 2016.
Other findings focus on La Niña and El Niño events, which have temporary cooling and heating effects on global temperatures respectively. These events do not slow down the long-term global warming trend. The report also anticipates increased precipitation in the tropics and reduced precipitation in the subtropics, patterns that align with expectations given the ongoing climate warming.
India-Specific Findings
In India, the temperatures are expected to fall due to an increase in rainfall activity over the next decade. The Indian monsoon is anticipated to enter a positive period after remaining in a negative period since 1971. This will lead to above-normal rainfall in many parts of India, thereby keeping the temperatures low. The decadal mean temperature value is expected to be near normal from 2021 to 2030 before turning positive in the following decade, marking the beginning of a wet period.
Implications of the Findings
The findings signal the world inching closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The 1.5°C threshold is considered the point where climate impacts will significantly harm people and the entire planet. The Paris Agreement aims to guide all nations to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C or ideally, 1.5 °C.
However, as long as human-induced greenhouse gas emissions continue, temperatures will rise, oceans will warm and become more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will melt, sea levels will rise, and weather will become more extreme. The Arctic warming is disproportionately higher than any other region which affects the global climate system.
Referencing Past UPSC Civil Services Questions
In light of these findings, it’s relevant to revisit previous year’s questions from UPSC Civil Services exam about the Paris Agreement. For instance, the question from 2016 about the aim and effectiveness of the agreement, where the correct answer was that the Agreement seeks to limit greenhouse gas emissions to prevent an increase in global temperatures by the end of the century beyond 2ºC or even 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
These studies not only provide critical information for decision-makers regarding climatic changes but also help improve our understanding of the earth’s evolving climate patterns.
