The recent approval of a $1 billion plan by the World Bank to implement education, health, agriculture, and family programs in Afghanistan aims to alleviate the nation’s growing humanitarian and economic crises. This strategic move, triggered by the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue in India, is designed to secure the vulnerable, preserve human capital, and key economic and social institutions in Afghanistan while mitigating the need for future humanitarian aid.
The Current State of Affairs in Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s instability poses significant threats not only to its immediate region but also to the global stage. The Taliban’s sudden capture of power in August 2021 has escalated tensions in the region, paralleling the unsettling geopolitical scenario of the late 1990s when the Taliban first seized power. The withdrawal of international aid organisations, a disorganised public health sector, and the Taliban’s inability to pay government employees have culminated in an unparalleled humanitarian crisis. Adding to the severity of the situation is the rampant economic turmoil that could potentially spark a civil war, especially if the Taliban fail to improve the economic landscape. This crisis provides fertile ground for terrorist groups to flourish and operate under reduced scrutiny.
Humanitarian Crisis & International Security
Many western nations perceive an immediate security threat from Afghanistan. The Taliban, aiming to gain international legitimacy and financial aid, seem to prefer diplomacy over violence. However, maintaining this façade of tranquility may be short-lived if the current humanitarian crisis worsens. Rising concerns about escalating violence because of “Islamic State” (IS) attacks demonstrate that even the Taliban may struggle to control the situation. Such conflict could potentially extend beyond Afghanistan’s borders, prompting regional powers to support proxy forces to confine the violence within national boundaries. However, such a solution to the Afghan conflict is only temporary.
Taliban Control & Threat to Regional Security
As the Taliban consolidate their power, their ties with international terrorists are becoming more apparent. These associations serve to embolden jihadi organizations in the region, increasing tactical and strategic ties with terrorist sponsors and financiers over time. Consequently, peace and regional security are jeopardized, becoming a matter of international concern.
Global Responsibility Towards Afghanistan
Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan requires more than merely providing aid. It necessitates the improvement of Afghanistan’s economy to alleviate poverty. While achieving this outcome involves global engagement with the Taliban, it is clear that if Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation does not improve, terrorism will not remain confined within its borders.
Implications for India
The Taliban’s control signifies a potential increase in influence for Pakistani military and intelligence agencies, leading to concerns over implications for India’s involvement in development and infrastructure work. There are also growing concerns about escalating radicalization and the formation of pan-Islamic terror groups in India’s neighborhood.
Way Forward
Resolving the Afghan crisis calls for the formation of an inclusive government comprising all ethnic groups. India, in particular, needs support from Russia and should aim to engage in productive discussions with China to seek a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan. This approach may involve seeking security guarantees from the Taliban in exchange for continued development assistance and exploring opportunities for the Taliban to gain autonomy from Pakistan.
