The opening days of 2026 have delivered a sharp signal that the old rules governing international conduct are fraying. The dramatic U.S. operation to detain Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro on American soil has been projected by Washington as a muscular revival of hemispheric dominance. Described by its proponents as a modernised Monroe Doctrine — dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine” — the episode raises fundamental questions about sovereignty, power politics, and the future of the post-1945 global order.
A 21st-century assertion of hemispheric primacy
The operation against Venezuela was not an isolated impulse but appears rooted in the worldview of U.S. President Donald Trump. His administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) of November 2025 clearly articulated an intent to reassert American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere and deny extra-regional powers any strategic foothold there. From this perspective, Venezuela became both a symbol and a test case of Washington’s willingness to act unilaterally, even at the cost of violating long-held norms of sovereignty.
Muted global response and the erosion of norms
What stands out is not only the action itself, but the subdued international reaction. Protests against the violation of Venezuelan sovereignty have been limited, reinforcing the perception that the post-Second World War international order has weakened. The sense that the world has entered a “free-for-all” phase in global commons is strengthened by fears that other major powers may emulate such precedents within their own spheres of influence.
Implications beyond the Americas
The logic underpinning Washington’s move has wider resonance. If the U.S. claims exclusive security responsibility in the Western Hemisphere, it implicitly legitimises similar doctrines elsewhere. China’s posture towards Taiwan and Russia’s actions in its near abroad are frequently cited as parallels that could draw encouragement from the Venezuelan precedent. The NSS also hints at potential pressure on countries such as Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico, and even revives earlier American interest in Greenland, framed as a strategic necessity.
Europe and the recalibration of transatlantic ties
Europe figures prominently — and critically — in the NSS. The document argues that European states must assume primary responsibility for their own defence, while Washington positions itself as a conditional supporter of Europe’s revival. This is coupled with a suggestion of seeking “strategic stability” with Russia. Against this backdrop, the war in Ukraine appears stalemated, with prospects of a negotiated outcome that may satisfy neither side, or alternatively, escalation with wider European repercussions.
West Asia: fragile calm and gathering storms
Closer to India, West Asia presents a mixed picture. Israel’s intense military campaign has paused, but peace remains elusive, especially in Gaza where violence appears perpetually imminent. Iran, meanwhile, is experiencing internal unrest that its leadership frames as a multi-front war — economic, psychological, military, and counter-terrorism. Western warnings of further sanctions and the perceived convergence of U.S. and Israeli objectives suggest that the unfinished business of 2025 could spill over into renewed regional conflict.
Afghanistan–Pakistan belt and democratic backsliding
Northwest Asia is set for continued turbulence. Militant groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban, appear resurgent, keeping the Afghanistan–Pakistan border volatile. Pakistan’s democratic trajectory looks increasingly bleak, with the military consolidating power under Field Marshal Asim Munir, eclipsing the civilian leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Paradoxically, Islamabad has regained strategic value for Washington, which now treats it as a key regional partner, including through renewed arms supplies.
China’s steady gains amid rivalry
For China, the previous year was relatively favourable. Despite intensifying rivalry with the U.S., Beijing weathered tariff pressures and leveraged its dominance in manufacturing and supply chains. Restrictions on rare earth exports enhanced China’s bargaining power, while its expanding presence in Southeast Asia, the Eastern Pacific, and the Indian Ocean signals a gradual dilution of American maritime primacy.
India’s strategic dilemma in 2026
India enters 2026 at an uncomfortable crossroads. Persistent U.S. criticism over India’s continued import of discounted Russian oil has cooled bilateral ties, contributing to New Delhi’s relative isolation on West Asian issues. Washington’s overt support for Pakistan’s military leadership further complicates matters. At the same time, cooperation continues in selective arenas, including mini-lateral initiatives like I2U2 and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor.
China’s tactical advantages in trade and tariffs leave India with limited room to hedge against American economic pressure. Even the modest improvement in India–China ties after the 2025 Tianjin meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping offers little assurance of deeper stabilisation this year.
Terrorism as a persistent security challenge
While India may avoid a major terror strike in 2026, terrorism remains an enduring national security concern. West Asia’s fragile calm, Iran’s upheaval, and the shifting fortunes of extremist groups in Africa all point to a diffusion rather than a decline of the threat. Insurgent and terrorist violence across Asia, West Asia, and Africa is likely to continue shaping security calculations.
What to note for Prelims?
- Monroe Doctrine and its contemporary reinterpretations.
- Key themes of the U.S. National Security Strategy 2025.
- Mini-lateral groupings such as I2U2 and IMEC.
- China’s leverage through rare earth exports and supply chains.
What to note for Mains?
- Implications of unilateral actions on sovereignty and international law.
- Changing nature of U.S. leadership and global order.
- India’s strategic autonomy amid U.S.–China rivalry.
- Linkages between regional instability and global terrorism trends.
