The Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict, a territorial dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, has recently regained international attention due to escalating clashes. This region is part of Transcaucasia or South Caucasia, which comprises Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, a geographical region situated at the intersection of Eastern Europe and Western Asia near the southern Caucasus Mountains.
Underlying Causes of the Dispute
A combination of territorial, religious, and political disputes fuel this conflict. The Nagorno-Karabakh region, despite being internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, has a population that’s roughly 95% ethnically Armenian and is controlled by Armenians. Differences in religious beliefs also exacerbate tensions – Armenia has a Christian majority while Azerbaijan is a Muslim majority country. The political leaders of both nations have routinely manipulated this issue for their personal gain.
Past Developments and Impact of the Dispute
The conflict’s origin can be traced back to 1920 when the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region within Azerbaijan. Over time, the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensified, leading to a declaration of independence by the region after a referendum in 1991, followed by a fierce war resulting in massive casualties. A ceasefire agreement was brokered by Russia in 1994. Despite the agreement, occasional violations have led to hundreds of deaths over the past decade. Among the most significant of these flare-ups was the Four Day War in April 2016.
Broader Implications of the Conflict
Renewed tensions threaten more than just Armenia and Azerbaijan. They could destabilize the entire South Caucasus region and lead to widespread social unrest, especially with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Civilian casualties are another concern; there are hundreds of civilian settlements in the disputed region. Economic disruptions are also possible, with Azerbaijan being a significant oil and gas exporter to Europe and Central Asia. Any major conflict might disrupt these exports and inflate global oil prices.
International Involvement
The conflict could have broader geopolitical repercussions. Russia’s historical ties with Armenia are at odds with the support Azerbaijan receives from Turkey and the United States. Iran’s significant Azeri minority adds to the complex dynamics, as does its potential to entangle multiple global actors if a crisis escalates. Despite an arms embargo by the United Nations, various countries including Russia and Israel have supplied arms to both nations.
India’s Relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan
In recent years, India’s relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan have experienced noticeable change. With Armenia, bilateral cooperation has seen rapid growth, including Armenian purchase of the Indian SWATHI military radar system in March 2020 and India’s counterbalancing role against Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey. On the other hand, while India’s connections with Azerbaijan involve membership to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and investment in Azerbaijani oil fields and pipelines, support for Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir issue strains their relationship.
Kashmir, Pakistan, and China’s Influence
The dispute also links to India’s own ongoing territorial conflict over Kashmir. Pakistan supports Azerbaijan, as it was the second nation to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence after Turkey. Interestingly, it doesn’t recognize Armenia as an independent state. In the meantime, China has been increasing its political, military, and economic footprint in the region, despite its alliance with rival Azerbaijan and its support for Pakistan, causing concern for India.
The Way Forward
The escalating tension warrants immediate intervention by international mediators to facilitate negotiations and prevent further clashes. Given the growing influence of China, Pakistan, and Turkey in the South Caucasus region, it is imperative for India to maintain a non-aligned stance, strengthen ties with both nations, and promote peace in the region.
Last Modified: February 9, 2024