India is bracing for an unusually hot summer. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal maximum temperatures across most of the country from April to June. This prediction follows a warmer-than-normal March. The IMD anticipates an increase in the number of heatwave days, particularly in eastern and central India.
Temperature Predictions
The IMD expects maximum temperatures to rise . Most regions, except parts of western peninsular India and some eastern areas, will experience above-normal temperatures. This trend is concerning as it indicates a potential increase in heat-related health risks.
Heatwave Days
The forecast suggests that there will be 3-6 heatwave days in April, compared to the normal 1-3 days. Regions likely to be affected include Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and eastern states like Jharkhand and West Bengal. The intensity of heatwaves is predicted to be higher in these eastern states.
Regional Variations
While most of India will face heatwaves, some areas in the extreme south, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, are expected to have normal temperatures. The IMD has also indicated that the north-west region will experience similar normal conditions.
Rainfall Expectations
Despite the heat, the IMD forecasts normal rainfall for April, estimating 88-112% of the long-term average. However, March recorded rainfall deficit of 33%. The only region to report above-normal rainfall in March was the southern peninsula, with a 34% increase.
ENSO and IOD Conditions
The current climatic conditions indicate a transition from a weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions. This shift is crucial as it can influence the monsoon season. The IMD will release its first long-range forecast for the monsoon around mid-April. Most global models suggest that the emergence of El Niño, which negatively impacts monsoon rains, is unlikely this year.
Heatwave Definition
The IMD defines a heatwave when temperatures reach specific thresholds for consecutive days. For plains, this is 40°C or more; for coastal areas, it is 37°C or more; and for hilly regions, it is 30°C or more. The World Meteorological Organisation has a broader definition, considering a heatwave as an average temperature exceeding historical norms by 5°C for five consecutive days.
Health Implications
The increase in heatwave days raises concerns over public health. Prolonged exposure to high temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses. Vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are particularly at risk.
Climate Change Factors
The predicted heatwaves are part of a broader trend linked to climate change. Rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns contribute to such extreme weather events. About these factors is essential for effective policy-making and disaster management.
Questions for UPSC:
- Examine the impact of climate change on monsoon patterns in India.
- Discuss the relationship between heatwaves and public health in urban areas.
- Analyse the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole in influencing weather patterns.
- Critically discuss the measures that can be taken to mitigate the effects of extreme heat on agriculture.
Answer Hints:
1. Examine the impact of climate change on monsoon patterns in India.
- Climate change leads to altered precipitation patterns, affecting monsoon reliability.
- Increased temperatures can cause more intense and erratic rainfall events.
- Changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) influence monsoon onset and duration.
- Extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, are becoming more frequent.
- Long-term shifts in monsoon patterns can threaten food security and water resources.
2. Discuss the relationship between heatwaves and public health in urban areas.
- Heatwaves increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in vulnerable populations.
- Urban heat islands amplify temperatures in cities, exacerbating health risks.
- Prolonged exposure to high temperatures can lead to dehydration and heat stroke.
- Access to healthcare and cooling centers is crucial for mitigating health impacts.
- Public awareness campaigns can educate residents on heat safety and prevention.
3. Analyse the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole in influencing weather patterns.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects monsoon strength and distribution of rainfall in India.
- Positive IOD phases typically enhance monsoon rains, while negative phases can suppress them.
- IOD influences sea surface temperatures, impacting atmospheric circulation patterns.
- About IOD can aid in better forecasting and preparedness for weather extremes.
- Collaboration of IOD with ENSO conditions can further complicate weather predictions.
4. Critically discuss the measures that can be taken to mitigate the effects of extreme heat on agriculture.
- Implementing heat-resistant crop varieties can enhance resilience to high temperatures.
- Improved irrigation techniques can help manage water resources during heatwaves.
- Educating farmers on adaptive practices and climate-smart agriculture is essential.
- Creating policies for sustainable land use can mitigate heat impacts on agriculture.
- Investment in research and technology can support innovative solutions for farming under extreme conditions.
