India’s Rising Temperatures and Climate Anomalies

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that 2024 was the warmest year recorded in India, with an annual mean surface temperature anomaly of +0.65°C. However, a deeper analysis suggests that actual warming may have exceeded 1°C. This threshold raises alarms about extreme weather events and biodiversity loss. The IMD has adjusted the Long Period Average (LPA) multiple times in recent years, which affects how warming is measured.

About the Long Period Average (LPA)

The LPA is a critical benchmark for assessing climate trends. It represents the average temperature over a 30-year period. The IMD has revised this benchmark four times since 2000. Each revision has resulted in a higher baseline temperature. This adjustment means that temperature anomalies appear smaller than they may actually be.

Changes in the LPA Over the Years

Historically, the IMD used the ‘1961–1990’ average as its LPA. In 2016, this was changed to the ‘1971–2000’ average. In 2019, it shifted to the ‘1981–2010’ average. Most recently, the ‘1991–2020’ average was adopted. These changes have implications for the perception of temperature trends.

Impact of LPA Changes on Temperature Anomalies

For instance, in 2010, using the ‘1961–1990’ LPA, the mean temperature anomaly was +0.93°C. After subsequent revisions, the anomaly for 2010 dropped to +0.39°C using the latest LPA. This indicates that the reported anomalies have been understated due to the revised baselines. Applying this correction to 2024’s anomaly suggests a deviation as high as +1.19°C from the earlier LPA.

Lack of Transparency in Reporting

The IMD’s annual summaries do not disclose the actual recorded temperatures or LPA values. They only present the anomalies. This lack of transparency complicates trend tracking and year-to-year comparisons. For example, the reported mean temperature for 2024 was 25.75°C, which raises questions about whether it was the warmest year.

Visible Effects of Climate Change

Regardless of the measurement methods, the impacts of climate change are evident. In 2024, India experienced extreme weather events on 322 days, affecting 88% of the year. This marks an increase from previous years. Fatalities due to extreme weather rose to 3,472, representing a 15% increase over three years. Agriculture suffered , with over 4 million hectares of land affected by extreme weather, an 84% increase from 2023.

Regional Variations in Extreme Weather

Every region in India has faced increased days of extreme weather. Central India recorded the most, with 253 days of extreme weather in 2024, marking a 16% rise from 2022. The southern peninsula also saw a 31% increase in extreme weather days. These trends highlight the pervasive nature of climate change across the country.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the implications of changing climate baselines on public perception of climate change.
2. Examine the correlation between extreme weather events and agricultural productivity in India.
3. Estimate the potential long-term impacts of rising temperatures on biodiversity in India.
4. Analyse the role of government transparency in climate data reporting and its effect on policy-making.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the implications of changing climate baselines on public perception of climate change.

1. Changing baselines make temperature anomalies appear smaller, potentially downplaying the urgency of climate issues.
2. Frequent revisions of the Long Period Average (LPA) can lead to confusion and skepticism about climate data accuracy.
3. Public trust in scientific data may erode if perceived manipulation of data is suspected.
4. Media narratives can shift, influencing public understanding and engagement with climate change actions.
5. Clear communication of methodology is essential to maintain credibility and inform public policy discussions.

2. Examine the correlation between extreme weather events and agricultural productivity in India.

1. Extreme weather events have increased , affecting agricultural cycles and yields across the country.
2. In 2024, over 4 million hectares of crops were impacted, indicating a direct correlation with agricultural losses.
3. Extreme weather can lead to crop failures, increased pest outbreaks, and reduced soil fertility.
4. Farmers face economic losses and food security challenges due to erratic weather patterns.
5. Adaptation strategies are necessary to mitigate the adverse effects on agriculture and ensure food supply stability.

3. Estimate the potential long-term impacts of rising temperatures on biodiversity in India.

1. Rising temperatures can lead to habitat loss, pushing species towards extinction, particularly those with narrow ecological niches.
2. Altered climate conditions disrupt migration patterns and breeding cycles of various species.
3. Increased frequency of extreme weather events can destroy ecosystems and reduce biodiversity resilience.
4. Loss of biodiversity affects ecosystem services, including pollination, water purification, and carbon sequestration.
5. Conservation efforts need to be intensified to protect vulnerable species and habitats in a warming climate.

4. Analyse the role of government transparency in climate data reporting and its effect on policy-making.

1. Transparency in climate data builds public trust and encourages informed decision-making among stakeholders.
2. Lack of clear data reporting, such as undisclosed actual temperatures, can hinder effective policy formulation.
3. Government accountability is crucial for addressing climate change and implementing necessary interventions.
4. Accessible data allows for better public awareness and engagement in climate action initiatives.
5. Robust climate policies depend on reliable data to assess impacts, set targets, and allocate resources effectively.