The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) titled ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.’ The report was prepared by scientists from the Working Group-I with the remaining parts to be released in 2022. The report emphasizes the need for global net-zero by 2050 to keep temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This forms a critical backdrop for the upcoming Conference of Parties (CoP) 26 conference in November 2021.
Key Findings on Surface Temperature and CO2 Concentrations
Per the report, the Earth’s average surface temperature is expected to surpass 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels in the coming 20 years (by 2040) and reach 2°C by mid-century without significant emission reductions. Comparatively, in 2018, the IPCC’s Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C recorded that two-fifths of the global population lived in regions experiencing warming exceeding 1.5°C. The report also reveals a historical high in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations in at least two million years.
Impacts of Global Warming
As assessed by the report, the impacts of global warming are widespread. Sea levels have been rising at three times the rate they were between 1901-1971, and the Arctic Sea ice is at its lowest level in 1,000 years. Approximately half of the sea-level rise can be attributed to thermal expansion due to warmer oceans. Other impacts of global warming include increased hot extremes, extreme precipitation, droughts, and receding snowlines and melting glaciers. These changes pose significant threats and challenges to ecosystems and human societies.
Findings Specific to the Indian Sub-continent
The report also outlines specific findings for regions like the Indian sub-continent, where heatwaves and humid heat stress are expected to intensify and become more frequent during this century. Additionally, monsoon precipitation is predicted to increase, impacting agriculture and water supply. Sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, are rising faster than the global average.
Net-Zero Emissions
In response to the challenges posed by climate change, many countries have announced their intentions to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, India has remained hesitant, arguing that it is already doing much more than it is required to do, performing better than other countries in relative terms. The IPCC warns that without India’s cooperation, achieving global net-zero by 2050, necessary to keep temperature rise to 1.5°C, will be impossible.
About the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC is an international body established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its mandate is to assess the science related to climate change and provide regular assessments to policymakers about the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts, future risks, and adaptation and mitigation options.
IPCC Assessment Reports
The IPCC publishes assessment reports approximately every seven years that offer comprehensive scientific evaluations of the Earth’s climate state. These reports are prepared by three working groups of scientists focusing on the scientific basis for climate change, likely impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation issues, and actions to combat climate change.
Addressing Climate Change
As underscored by many, climate change poses a greater threat to humanity than Covid-19 due to its irreversible impacts. Given the non-reversible changes to the climate, there is an urgent need to drastically cut carbon emissions. All nations, particularly the G20 and major emitters, must join the net-zero emissions coalition, reinforce their commitments with credible, concrete and enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions, and implement effective policies before COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland.
Last Modified: February 13, 2024