Pakistan’s mounting water stress is poised to intensify as India moves to fully utilise its share of the Ravi river waters with the completion of the Shahpur Kandi dam. The development comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the Pahalgam terror attack. While India asserts that it is merely exercising its treaty rights over the eastern rivers, Pakistan faces growing anxieties over declining water inflows and long-term hydrological security.
What Is the Shahpur Kandi Dam Project?
4
The Shahpur Kandi dam is located on the Ravi river at the Punjab–Jammu and Kashmir border. Conceived decades ago but delayed due to inter-state disputes and clearances, the project is now nearing completion.
Its key objectives include:
- Irrigation benefits to drought-prone districts such as Kathua and Samba in Jammu and Kashmir.
- Optimal utilisation of Ravi waters that previously flowed unutilised into Pakistan.
- Strengthening India’s control over eastern river resources under treaty provisions.
For years, inadequate storage infrastructure meant that surplus Ravi water crossed into Pakistan. With the dam expected to be operational by March 31, this routine outflow is set to cease.
The Indus Waters Treaty: Division of Rivers and Rights
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, divided the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan.
- Eastern Rivers (allocated to India): Ravi, Beas, Sutlej.
- Western Rivers (allocated to Pakistan): Indus, Jhelum, Chenab.
India has unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers, while Pakistan has primary rights over the western rivers, with limited non-consumptive uses permitted to India (such as run-of-the-river hydropower).
The Shahpur Kandi project falls squarely within India’s entitlement over the Ravi. Therefore, from a legal standpoint, India is not violating the treaty by preventing surplus flows.
Link to Post-Pahalgam Geopolitics
4
The project’s fast-tracked execution follows the Pahalgam terror attack, which New Delhi attributed to Pakistan-backed elements. In response, India announced punitive diplomatic and strategic measures, including the suspension of the IWT framework.
Parallel developments include progress on hydropower projects on the Chenab, such as the Sawalkote project, signalling India’s intent to maximise permissible use of river waters.
This marks a shift from restraint to assertive utilisation of treaty rights — a subtle but significant geopolitical recalibration.
Why Pakistan’s Water Vulnerability Is Deepening
Pakistan is among the most water-stressed countries in the world. Several factors aggravate its vulnerability:
- High dependence on Indus basin waters for agriculture.
- Limited water storage capacity relative to seasonal flows.
- Rapid population growth and inefficient irrigation practices.
- Climate change-induced variability in glacial melt and monsoon patterns.
Although Ravi constitutes a smaller share of Pakistan’s total Indus basin water, cumulative reductions from eastern rivers compound long-term scarcity concerns. Symbolically too, the stoppage reinforces India’s strategic leverage.
Legal and Strategic Debates Around Treaty Suspension
The suspension of the IWT raises complex legal and diplomatic questions. The treaty has historically survived wars and political crises, often cited as a model of water cooperation between adversaries.
Key debates include:
- Whether a unilateral suspension aligns with international water law principles.
- The role of the World Bank as a guarantor.
- The risk of water securitisation in South Asia.
- The precedent it sets for future transboundary river disputes globally.
While India maintains that its actions remain within treaty entitlements regarding eastern rivers, the broader diplomatic signal is unmistakable.
What to Note for Prelims?
- Rivers under the Indus system: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western); Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern).
- Year of signing of the Indus Waters Treaty: 1960.
- Broker: World Bank.
- Nature of hydropower allowed to India on western rivers: Run-of-the-river projects.
- Location of Shahpur Kandi dam: On Ravi, Punjab–J&K border.
What to Note for Mains?
- Strategic use of water as a geopolitical tool in South Asia.
- Balancing treaty obligations with national security concerns.
- Climate change and transboundary river governance.
- Institutional resilience of long-standing bilateral treaties.
- Need for modernising water-sharing frameworks in conflict-prone regions.