Rising Heat Threatens India’s Wheat Production

India faced unprecedented heat conditions. February was recorded as the warmest in 124 years. The India Meteorological Department warned of above-normal temperatures in March. This coincided with the wheat harvest season, jeopardising important crop. Wheat is India’s second-most consumed grain, following rice.

Wheat Cultivation in India

Wheat is predominantly cultivated in the northwestern Indo-Gangetic plains. Key states include Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. The crop is sown from October to December and harvested from February to April. The government targeted a procurement of 30 million tonnes for the 2025-2026 rabi marketing season. Despite aiming for a production record of 115 million tonnes for 2024-2025, procurement fell short of expectations.

Impact of Climate Change

Climate variability affects agriculture. Heat waves during the crop growth season pose risks. A 2022 study brought into light that global warming induces heat stress. This disrupts biological processes essential for wheat growth. High temperatures can reduce grain production and quality.

Stages of Wheat Growth

Wheat growth comprises four stages

• Germination to emergence – Seedling growth until the first leaf appears.
• Growth stage 1 – From emergence to double ridge, focusing on leaf and spikelet development.
• Growth stage 2 – Transitioning to reproductive stages, particularly vulnerable to heat stress.
• Growth stage 3 – The grain-filling period, crucial for yield.

Effects of Rising Temperatures

Rising temperatures lead to early flowering and rapid ripening. This shortens the grain-filling period. Consequently, grains become lighter with lower starch content. High temperatures can also alter milling quality. Farmers may face lower market prices due to reduced weight and quality.

Adaptive Strategies for Farmers

Food security is vital in mitigating heat stress on wheat. Farmers often rely on traditional varieties due to accessibility issues. Climate-resilient varieties are essential but not a complete solution. Policymakers must address broader challenges posed by climate change.

Policy Recommendations

Immediate support for farmers includes compensation for heat stress impacts. Long-term strategies should focus on changing agricultural practices. Early sowing and improved yield varieties can help. Policymakers should combine scientific research, financial aid, and farmer education. Promoting heat-resistant varieties and adjusting sowing dates are crucial steps.

Future Challenges

The Indian Ocean’s warming is accelerating. A 2024 study predicts a near-permanent heat wave state by century’s end. This will further disrupt monsoon patterns and agricultural cycles. Effective management of resources like fertilisers and pest control is essential.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of climate change on food security in India.
2. What is the significance of wheat in India’s agricultural economy? Discuss its challenges.
3. Estimate the potential effects of rising ocean temperatures on India’s monsoon patterns.
4. Point out the necessary policy measures to enhance climate resilience in Indian agriculture.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of climate change on food security in India.

1. Climate change leads to erratic weather patterns, affecting crop yields and food supply.
2. Increased frequency of heat waves disrupts critical growth periods for staple crops like wheat.
3. Higher temperatures can reduce grain quality and quantity, impacting overall food availability.
4. Vulnerable populations face heightened food insecurity due to reliance on climate-sensitive crops.
5. Adaptation strategies, such as climate-resilient crops and improved resource management, are essential for safeguarding food security.

2. What is the significance of wheat in India’s agricultural economy? Discuss its challenges.

1. Wheat is India’s second-most consumed staple, crucial for food security and nutrition.
2. It contributes to the agricultural GDP and rural livelihoods, especially in northern states.
3. Challenges include climate change impacts, such as heat stress, which threaten yield and quality.
4. Government procurement targets often fall short, affecting farmers’ income and market stability.
5. Dependence on traditional varieties limits adaptability to changing climate conditions.

3. Estimate the potential effects of rising ocean temperatures on India’s monsoon patterns.

1. Warming oceans can lead to altered monsoon timings, impacting agricultural sowing and harvest cycles.
2. Increased frequency of marine heat waves may disrupt atmospheric patterns, leading to unpredictable rainfall.
3. Delayed monsoons can affect the kharif crop season, subsequently impacting the rabi season and wheat production.
4. Changes in precipitation patterns can exacerbate drought or flooding risks, affecting food security.
5. Long-term ocean warming may lead to a permanent shift in monsoon behavior, with agricultural implications.

4. Point out the necessary policy measures to enhance climate resilience in Indian agriculture.

1. Implement immediate financial support and compensation for farmers affected by climate-related stressors.
2. Promote research and development of climate-resilient crop varieties to withstand heat and water stress.
3. Encourage early sowing practices and adjust agricultural calendars based on climate forecasts.
4. Enhance farmer education on sustainable practices and efficient resource management techniques.
5. Establish comprehensive monitoring systems for weather patterns to inform agricultural decisions and policies.